Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
69% | 31% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
69% | 31% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Caitlin Clark: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 69% |
| Caitlin Clark: Points O/U 16.5 | 67% |
| Caitlin Clark: Assists O/U 6.5 | 66% |
| Dominique Malonga: Points O/U 16.5 | 65% |
| Kelsey Mitchell: Points O/U 21.5 | 63% |
| O/U 173.5 | 59% |
| Caitlin Clark: Points O/U 17.5 | 59% |
| Kelsey Mitchell: Assists O/U 2.5 | 56% |
| O/U 174.5 | 56% |
| Spread -8.5 | 56% |
| Aliyah Boston: Rebounds O/U 8.5 | 55% |
| O/U 175.5 | 55% |
| Jade Melbourne: Assists O/U 3.5 | 53% |
| Spread -9.5 | 52% |
| Dominique Malonga: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 52% |
| O/U 176.5 | 52% |
| Natisha Hiedeman: Points O/U 15.5 | 51% |
| Kelsey Mitchell: Points O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| Dominique Malonga: Points O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Aliyah Boston: Points O/U 16.5 | 49% |
| Flau'jae Johnson: Points O/U 14.5 | 48% |
| Caitlin Clark: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 43% |
| Caitlin Clark: Assists O/U 7.5 | 43% |
| Natisha Hiedeman: Assists O/U 4.5 | 41% |
| Flau'jae Johnson: Assists O/U 3.5 | 39% |
| Natisha Hiedeman: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 38% |
| Flau'jae Johnson: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 28% |
| Seattle Storm vs. Indiana Fever | 21% |
Market context
Market consensus: 69% chance of seattle storm vs. indiana fever. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. In the upcoming WNBA game, scheduled for July 17 at 7:30PM ET: If the Seattle Storm win, the market will resolve to "Seattle Storm". If the Indiana Fever win, the market will resol…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $96K.
Methodology
This page compares Seattle Storm vs. Indiana Fever specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Robinhood Prediction Markets has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Robinhood Prediction Markets offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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