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World Cup: Player to score

Which venue prices "World Cup: Player to score" best? Direct comparison of Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair and Smarkets.

Julián Álvarez 100% Lionel Messi 100% João Neves 100% Jude Bellingham 100% Volume: $1.3M Liquidity: $73K Closes: 20 Jul 2026
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World Cup: Player to score

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Go to the live market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Go to the live market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Go to the live market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Go to the live market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Go to the live market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Julián Álvarez100%
Lionel Messi100%
João Neves100%
Jude Bellingham100%
Luis Díaz100%
Lautaro Martínez100%
Virgil van Dijk100%
Jamal Musiala100%
Nuno Mendes100%
Kevin De Bruyne100%
Désiré Doué100%
Cristiano Ronaldo100%
Ousmane Dembélé100%
Enzo Fernández100%
Mohamed Salah100%
Cody Gakpo100%
Ismaïla Sarr100%
Rafael Leão100%
Alexis Mac Allister100%
Gabriel Martinelli100%
Viktor Gyökeres100%
Arda Güler100%
Fabián Ruiz100%
Casemiro100%
Mikel Merino100%
Raúl Jiménez100%
Gonçalo Ramos100%
Mikel Oyarzabal100%
Lisandro Martínez100%
Bradley Barcola100%
Alexander Isak100%
Dan Ndoye100%
Granit Xhaka100%
Breel Embolo100%
Matheus Cunha100%
Wilson Isidor100%
Folarin Balogun100%
Julio Enciso100%
Kai Havertz100%
Leroy Sané100%
Amad Diallo100%
Nicolas Pépé100%
Keito Nakamura100%
Anthony Elanga100%
Charles De Ketelaere100%
Romelu Lukaku100%
Leandro Trossard100%
Iliman Ndiaye100%
Marcel Sabitzer100%
Yoane Wissa100%
Marcus Rashford100%
Ivan Perišić100%
Neymar Jr.100%
Dário Leite48%
Eberechi Eze30%
Bukayo Saka21%
Dani Olmo21%
Nico Williams15%
Declan Rice14%
Michael Olise14%
Ferran Torres13%
Pedri11%
Rodri10%
Rayan Cherki9%
Marcus Thuram8%
Marc Cucurella6%
Reece James6%
Marc Guéhi6%
Aurélien Tchouaméni4%
Gavi4%
N'Golo Kanté3%
Pau Cubarsí3%
Ibrahima Konaté2%
Jules Koundé2%
Martin Zubimendi1%
Federico Valverde0%
Bruno Fernandes0%
Raphinha0%
Moisés Caicedo0%
Gabriel Magalhães0%
Florian Wirtz0%
Antoine Semenyo0%
Joshua Kimmich0%
Alphonso Davies0%
Bernardo Silva0%
Cole Palmer0%
Luka Modrić0%
Denzel Dumfries0%
Jérémy Doku0%
Antonio Rüdiger0%
Tijjani Reijnders0%
Rúben Dias0%
Bruno Guimarães0%
Frenkie de Jong0%
Trent Alexander-Arnold0%
Vitinha0%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia0%
Robert Lewandowski0%
David Raya0%
Sadio Mané0%
Martin Ødegaard0%
William Pacho0%
Scott McTominay0%
Ryan Gravenberch0%
Fermín López0%
Joško Gvardiol0%
Marquinhos0%
William Saliba0%
João Pedro0%
Weston McKennie0%
João Cancelo0%
Christian Pulisic0%
Son Heung-min0%
Jeremie Frimpong0%
Kenan Yıldız0%
Kaoru Mitoma0%
Phil Foden0%
Kim Min-jae0%
Pervis Estupiñán0%
Noah Okafor0%
Abdulaziz Hatem0%
Ahmed Fathi0%
Igor Thiago0%
Endrick0%
Brahim Díaz0%
Josué Casimir0%
Che Adams0%
Ricardo Pepi0%
Miguel Almirón0%
Hakan Çalhanoğlu0%
Nick Woltemade0%
Lennart Kahl0%
Tahith Chong0%
Yann Bisseck0%
Ibrahim Sangaré0%
Teun Koopmeiners0%
Memphis Depay0%
Donyell Malen0%
Takefusa Kubo0%
Khalil Ayari0%
Omar Marmoush0%
Haissem Hassan0%
Chris Wood0%
Alexander Sørloth0%
Oscar Bobb0%
Emiliano Buendía0%
Carney Chukwuemeka0%
Pedro Neto0%
Luis Suárez0%
James Rodríguez0%
Mateo Kovačić0%
Iñaki Williams0%
Ismael Díaz0%
Luis Javier Suárez0%
Darwin Nunez0%

Market context

Market consensus: 100% chance of world cup: player to score. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed player scores a goal during any match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Otherwise, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. A goal sco…

Methodology

This page compares World Cup: Player to score specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
What about Smarkets as an alternative?
Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
Which platform is accessible globally?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Robinhood Prediction Markets has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
Alex ChenAlex ChenPrediction Market AnalystandJordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction Reporter

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