Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
74% | 26% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
74% | 26% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Singapore Open: Mirra Andreeva vs Leylah Fernandez Set 2 Winner | 74% |
| Singapore Open: Mirra Andreeva vs Leylah Fernandez Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 70% |
| Singapore Open: Mirra Andreeva vs Leylah Fernandez | 55% |
| Singapore Open: Mirra Andreeva vs Leylah Fernandez Match O/U 21.5 | 55% |
| Singapore Open: Mirra Andreeva vs Leylah Fernandez Match O/U 23.5 | 54% |
| Singapore Open: Mirra Andreeva vs Leylah Fernandez Match O/U 22.5 | 53% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Singapore Open: Mirra Andreeva vs Leylah Fernandez Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Singapore Open: Mirra Andreeva vs Leylah Fernandez Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Singapore Open: Mirra Andreeva vs Leylah Fernandez Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Singapore Open: Mirra Andreeva vs Leylah Fernandez Game Spread +/-4.5 | 50% |
| Singapore Open: Mirra Andreeva vs Leylah Fernandez Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Singapore Open: Mirra Andreeva vs Leylah Fernandez Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Singapore Open: Mirra Andreeva vs Leylah Fernandez Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Singapore Open: Mirra Andreeva vs Leylah Fernandez Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Singapore Open: Mirra Andreeva vs Leylah Fernandez Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, singapore open: mirra andreeva vs leylah fernandez stands at 74% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the tennis match between Mirra Andreeva and Leylah Fernandez in the Singapore Open, originally scheduled for September 24, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market wi…
Methodology
This page compares Singapore Open: Mirra Andreeva vs Leylah Fernandez specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Robinhood Prediction Markets has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Robinhood Prediction Markets offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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