Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
71% | 29% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
71% | 29% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alexandra Eala vs Qinwen Zheng Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 71% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alexandra Eala vs Qinwen Zheng Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 49% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alexandra Eala vs Qinwen Zheng Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 49% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alexandra Eala vs Qinwen Zheng Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 49% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alexandra Eala vs Qinwen Zheng Match O/U 21.5 | 48% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alexandra Eala vs Qinwen Zheng Set 1 Winner | 47% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alexandra Eala vs Qinwen Zheng Set 2 Winner | 47% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alexandra Eala vs Qinwen Zheng Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 46% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alexandra Eala vs Qinwen Zheng Match O/U 22.5 | 43% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alexandra Eala vs Qinwen Zheng | 41% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alexandra Eala vs Qinwen Zheng Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 38% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alexandra Eala vs Qinwen Zheng Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 38% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alexandra Eala vs Qinwen Zheng Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 28% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alexandra Eala vs Qinwen Zheng Match O/U 23.5 | 26% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alexandra Eala vs Qinwen Zheng Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 25% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 71% probability to mubadala citi dc open: alexandra eala vs qinwen zheng. This market refers to the tennis match between Alexandra Eala and Qinwen Zheng in the Mubadala Citi DC Open, originally scheduled for July 27, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alexand…
Methodology
This page compares Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alexandra Eala vs Qinwen Zheng specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.
FAQ
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Robinhood Prediction Markets offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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