Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| National Bank Open, Qualification: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Aoi Ito Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| National Bank Open, Qualification: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Aoi Ito Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| National Bank Open, Qualification: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Aoi Ito Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| National Bank Open, Qualification: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Aoi Ito Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| National Bank Open, Qualification: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Aoi Ito Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| National Bank Open, Qualification: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Aoi Ito Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| National Bank Open, Qualification: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Aoi Ito Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| National Bank Open, Qualification: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Aoi Ito Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| National Bank Open, Qualification: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Aoi Ito | 0% |
| National Bank Open, Qualification: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Aoi Ito Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| National Bank Open, Qualification: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Aoi Ito Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| National Bank Open, Qualification: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Aoi Ito Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| National Bank Open, Qualification: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Aoi Ito Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| National Bank Open, Qualification: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Aoi Ito Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| National Bank Open, Qualification: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Aoi Ito Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for National Bank Open, Qualification: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Aoi Ito. This market refers to the tennis match between Oksana Selekhmeteva and Aoi Ito in the National Bank Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for August 1, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolv…
Methodology
This page compares National Bank Open, Qualification: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Aoi Ito specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Robinhood Prediction Markets offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
Trade National Bank Open, Qualification: Oksana Selekhmete… on Robinhood Prediction Markets
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →