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Next leader out of power before 2027?

Cross-platform snapshot for "Next leader out of power before 2027?": deepest order book, lowest fee, geo-coverage at a glance.

None before 2027 50% Netanyahu - Israel PM 30% Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea 4% Lecornu - France PM 4% Volume: $1.2M Liquidity: $586K Closes: 1 Jan 2027
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Next leader out of power before 2027?

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 50% 50% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Go to the live market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 50% 50% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Go to the live market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Go to the live market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Go to the live market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Go to the live market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
None before 202750%
Netanyahu - Israel PM30%
Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea4%
Lecornu - France PM4%
Sánchez - Spanish PM3%
Macron - France President1%
Zelenskyy - Ukraine President1%
Abbas - President of Palestine1%
Merz - German Chancellor1%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President1%
Erdoğan - Türkiye President0%
Xi - General Secretary of the CCP0%
Albanese - Australia PM0%
Newsom - California Governor0%
Milei - Argentina President0%
Trump - USA President0%
Putin - Russia President0%
Lula da Silva - Brazil President0%
Takaichi - Japan PM0%
Sheinbaum - Mexico President0%
Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President0%
al-Sharaa - Syria President0%

Market context

Live Polymarket data shows 50% YES probability for Next leader out of power before 2027?. This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the o…

Methodology

This page compares Next leader out of power before 2027? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
What about Smarkets as an alternative?
Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
Alex ChenAlex ChenPrediction Market AnalystandJordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction Reporter

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