Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz is currently closed to commercial shipping, with transit calls near zero against a normal baseline of roughly 60 vessels per day. This abrupt suspension follows a brief reopening and stems from escalating tensions linked to the Iran war, which has driven oil prices and global trade costs upward. The market resolves to “Yes” only if IMF PortWatch publishes a seven-day moving average of arrivals equal to or above 60 before 31 July 2026, a threshold that remains unmet as daily calls sit at just five.

Historically, similar closures in the region have lasted weeks rather than months, yet the current geopolitical volatility suggests a prolonged disruption. Recent data shows the seven-day average at 13.14 as of 21 June, far below the 60-vessel requirement, and NBC News reports traffic has been at a near-standstill for weeks amid the conflict[5]. While MarineTraffic data hints at a gradual return to normal levels despite ongoing uncertainty, the gap between current flows and the settlement threshold remains substantial, framing the 54% implied probability as a cautious bet on rapid de-escalation.

Traders should monitor official announcements from Iran and the US regarding naval deployments, scheduled peace talks, and any shifts in oil export policies. A recent NBC News graphic confirms that the standstill has persisted for weeks, with no immediate sign of resumption[5]. Platform comparisons reveal key divergences: Polymarket displays decimal odds (1.85) while Kalshi and Betfair use implied probability (54%), and fee structures vary significantly—Polymarket charges 0% maker fees but 2% taker fees, whereas Kalshi imposes a 1% cap on profits. KYC requirements also differ, with Kalshi mandating full identity verification while Polymarket allows wallet-only access, affecting liquidity and user reach on this specific event.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We read Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live quote comes directly from the Polygon order book; the other three are listed with their platform attributes — fees, KYC, settlement currency, payment options — because a 1:1 contract comparison without API access would be guesswork.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.