National Bank Open: Duncan Chan vs Thiago Agustin Tirante

Platform comparison

Market context

Duncan Chan’s match with Thiago Agustin Tirante at the National Bank Open is priced at a crowd-implied **0% YES**, which implies the market thinks Chan is extremely unlikely to advance. That is consistent with the available player data: Chan’s public record is still very thin at ATP level, with ESPN listing a **0–0** singles record and the ATP profile showing no established tour-level results, while Tennis Canada’s collegiate record shows he is a strong junior-to-collegiate player rather than a proven main-tour regular.[2][8][3] On a platform comparison basis, a near-zero probability on Polymarket is easiest to read directly as implied chance, whereas Kalshi typically quotes the same view through contract pricing, and Betfair or Smarkets would express it as decimal odds with commission baked in, so the same “longshot” can look different once fees and market conventions are applied.

Historical comparables point to caution in treating a 0% crowd line as literal certainty. In tennis, unranked or lightly seen players can still move markets sharply when entry lists firm up, because the main determinant is often not reputation but whether the draw actually materialises and who is confirmed to start. Chan’s recent profile shows activity on hard courts and some positive results at lower tiers, including a 2025 hard-court run and a collegiate 2025–26 season at TCU, but that is not the same as beating an ATP-level opponent in a main-draw or qualifying match.[3][5][11] For traders, the key catalysts are the official order of play, any walkover or withdrawal news, and whether the match is completed inside the settlement window; if it is cancelled, tied, or delayed beyond seven days without a winner, the market goes 50–50 under the contract terms.

Tirante’s side of the equation is therefore the practical default unless there is a late change to the draw, injury news, or a scheduling disruption. The live trading angle is less about form lines than about confirmation risk, because if the match starts but is not finished, settlement depends on the eventual official outcome rather than early play. That matters more on Betfair and Smarkets, where odds can move around late withdrawals and then be reduced by exchange commission, while Kalshi and Polymarket users are generally pricing the binary outcome itself.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares National Bank Open: Duncan Chan vs Thiago Agustin Tirante specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?

Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.

What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?

Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.

Which platform has the deepest liquidity?

Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.

What about Smarkets as an alternative?

Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.

Which platform is accessible globally?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Robinhood Prediction Markets has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.