Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| China Open, Qualification: Tamara Zidansek vs Ksenia Zaytseva Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| China Open, Qualification: Tamara Zidansek vs Ksenia Zaytseva Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| China Open, Qualification: Tamara Zidansek vs Ksenia Zaytseva Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| China Open, Qualification: Tamara Zidansek vs Ksenia Zaytseva Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| China Open, Qualification: Tamara Zidansek vs Ksenia Zaytseva Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| China Open, Qualification: Tamara Zidansek vs Ksenia Zaytseva Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| China Open, Qualification: Tamara Zidansek vs Ksenia Zaytseva Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| China Open, Qualification: Tamara Zidansek vs Ksenia Zaytseva Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| China Open, Qualification: Tamara Zidansek vs Ksenia Zaytseva | 0% |
| China Open, Qualification: Tamara Zidansek vs Ksenia Zaytseva Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| China Open, Qualification: Tamara Zidansek vs Ksenia Zaytseva Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| China Open, Qualification: Tamara Zidansek vs Ksenia Zaytseva Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| China Open, Qualification: Tamara Zidansek vs Ksenia Zaytseva Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| China Open, Qualification: Tamara Zidansek vs Ksenia Zaytseva Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
| China Open, Qualification: Tamara Zidansek vs Ksenia Zaytseva Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| China Open, Qualification: Tamara Zidansek vs Ksenia Zaytseva Game Spread +/-3.5 | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, china open, qualification: tamara zidansek vs ksenia zaytseva stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the tennis match between Tamara Zidansek and Ksenia Zaytseva in the China Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for September 28, 2026 at 2:00AM ET. This…
Methodology
We read China Open, Qualification: Tamara Zidansek vs Ksenia Zaytseva from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Robinhood Prediction Markets has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
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