Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

Platform comparison

Market context

Global temperatures in 2026 are tracking as a top-tier heat year, with early data suggesting it will likely rank fourth overall since 1850, though a record-breaking outcome remains possible [2]. The World Meteorological Organisation forecasts annual mean temperatures for the 2026–2030 period to sit between 1.3°C and 1.9°C above the 1850–1900 baseline, reinforcing the likelihood of continued record warmth [1]. Historical context shows the past eleven years are the warmest since records began, with the last three topping the leaderboard, meaning the current 32% crowd-implied probability for a top-three finish reflects a significant but not dominant chance of 2026 surpassing 2024 and 2023 [4].

Traders should monitor monthly climate reports from NOAA and the EU Climate Service, as individual months like January and May 2026 have already ranked fifth and second warmest respectively, setting a high baseline for the annual average [3][9]. The primary catalyst is the final Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index release, which will lock the numerical rank regardless of future revisions [2]. On Polymarket, this 32% probability translates to decimal odds of roughly 3.13, whereas Kalshi and Betfair typically display implied probabilities directly, creating a friction point for users comparing fee structures and KYC requirements across platforms. Smarkets’ zero-fee model on winnings may appeal to those hedging the 21% chance of a second-place finish against the 10% probability of a first-place record [2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?

Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.

Which platform has the deepest liquidity?

Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.

What about Smarkets as an alternative?

Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.

Are all these platforms regulated?

No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.

Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?

Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Robinhood Prediction Markets offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.