Highest temperature in Beijing on August 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing's peak temperature on 12 August 2026 will be measured at the Capital International Airport Station and recorded in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, with settlement determined by the highest reading captured there rather than any summary figure. The market currently shows 0% implied probability, suggesting traders expect the temperature to fall outside the highest range bracket offered—a positioning that reflects the difficulty of forecasting precise daily maxima months in advance.

August temperatures in Beijing typically peak between 32–35°C, with occasional excursions above 36°C during heat waves. Historical data from the past decade shows that extreme heat events (38°C+) occur roughly once every two to three years during summer months, whilst readings below 30°C are rare in mid-August. The current crowd probability of zero suggests either that the highest available range threshold sits well above typical August conditions, or that traders are heavily discounting the likelihood of any single temperature bracket resolving true. Comparing across platforms, Polymarket's decimal odds format and Kalshi's binary structure may produce different apparent probabilities on the same underlying event, though both ultimately reflect the same scarcity of committed volume at extreme temperature ranges.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in early August 2026, as these typically provide 10-day outlooks that refine expectations for regional heat patterns. The resolution hinges entirely on Weather Underground's Daily Observations feed from Beijing Capital International Airport—a dependency that makes data feed reliability material to settlement, distinguishing this market from those relying on official government sources or multiple-source averaging methodologies.

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Beijing on August 12? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?

Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.

What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?

Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.

Which platform has the deepest liquidity?

Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.

Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?

Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.

Which platform is accessible globally?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Robinhood Prediction Markets has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.