Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 11 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport will determine this market's settlement. The resolution hinges specifically on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than the Day High & Low summary section—a distinction that matters when automated feeds and manual corrections diverge. Chongqing's summer climate typically peaks in July and early August, with August temperatures often ranging between 32–36°C, though extremes above 40°C have occurred during heat waves.

Historical August data from Chongqing shows considerable year-to-year variation. The city experienced a severe heat event in 2022 when temperatures exceeded 40°C for extended periods, yet other August dates have remained below 35°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders currently view the market's upper temperature brackets as unlikely, though this reflects confidence in a moderate outcome rather than certainty. Comparable Chinese weather markets on Polymarket and Kalshi have shown that summer temperature predictions in major cities often cluster around seasonal norms unless specific heat advisories emerge beforehand.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in early August, which typically provide 10-day outlooks by late July. Any issued heat warnings or extreme weather alerts would shift probability distributions upward. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 11 August, creating a hard deadline for final observations; late-day temperature spikes recorded after midnight local time but before the UTC cutoff could affect outcomes. Weather Underground's data feed reliability in mainland China occasionally lags behind domestic sources, introducing minor settlement risk.

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 11? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?

Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.

Which platform has the deepest liquidity?

Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.

Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?

Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.

Are all these platforms regulated?

No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.

Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?

Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Robinhood Prediction Markets offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.