Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chongqing’s **3 August maximum** should be read against a city that is usually at or near its seasonal heat peak in early August, with typical August highs clustered in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius and day-specific historical guides putting 3 August around **34.7°C**. That makes a **0% YES** crowd price look like an outlier only if the market is interpreted as “any very hot day”; for the actual settlement source, the key question is whether Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station posts a daily maximum inside the listed band on the Wunderground page, not whether the city feels broadly hot.[2][6][9]

For comparison across books, Polymarket generally shows the market as a direct probability, while Kalshi and some sports-style books quote prices or decimal-style odds that need converting back into an implied chance; fees also differ, with exchange-style venues and prediction-market venues often charging differently on execution and withdrawal. On a weather contract like this, that matters because a low headline probability on one venue may reflect a wider spread or a fee-adjusted price rather than a genuine consensus on the temperature outcome, and access can vary by jurisdiction and KYC standard, which affects who can participate and how quickly liquidity updates.[1]

The main catalyst is the actual temperature path at the airport station through the Beijing time afternoon, because the settlement window ends at 12:00 UTC, well before the local day ends in Chongqing. Traders should watch the Wunderground history page as the day progresses, alongside any short-term forecast guidance from established weather services; August climatology already points to hot, humid conditions, with the city’s monthly average high near **34°C** and some forecasts showing daytime readings around the low 30s to mid 30s Celsius.[2][3][19]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 3? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

Which platform has the deepest liquidity?

Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.

Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?

Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.

What about Smarkets as an alternative?

Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.

Which platform is accessible globally?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Robinhood Prediction Markets has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.

Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?

Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Robinhood Prediction Markets offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.