Highest temperature in Chongqing on June 26?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event concerns the highest temperature recorded at Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport on 26 June 2026, a date falling squarely within the city’s hot season which runs from mid-June to early September. Historical data confirms that daytime highs in Chongqing during June typically range from 26°C to 35°C, with the average daily high exceeding 28°C and the hottest month often reaching peaks near 43°C[3][5][7]. Given that the current crowd-implied probability for any specific outcome sits at 0%, traders should note that this reflects a market where liquidity is sparse or the resolution range is undefined rather than a consensus that the event is impossible. Platforms like Polymarket often display decimal odds which can obscure low-probability events compared to Kalshi’s implied probability format, while fee structures and KYC requirements diverge significantly between these books, affecting how such thin markets are priced.

Traders monitoring this market must watch for immediate weather updates, specifically the forecast of partly cloudy conditions with local thunderstorms and showers possible on the settlement date, which could suppress peak temperatures below the typical 35°C ceiling[1]. The primary catalyst is the Wunderground daily record for the station, which will be the sole resolution source, meaning any sudden shift in cloud cover or precipitation intensity could alter the final temperature range[2]. Recent forecasts for June 2026 indicate daily highs between 75°F and 95°F (approximately 24°C to 35°C), suggesting the outcome will likely fall within this band unless an extreme heatwave occurs[4]. Differences in how platforms handle such weather dependencies, such as Betfair’s manual settlement versus Smarkets’ automated feeds, may create arbitrage opportunities if one book reacts faster to the thunderstorm warning than the other.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Chongqing on June 26? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.