Highest temperature in NYC on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City's highest temperature on 11 August 2026 will be measured at LaGuardia Airport Station and recorded in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, with settlement determined by that primary source rather than the Day High & Low summary section. The current 0% implied probability suggests traders are pricing in either exceptionally cool conditions or minimal trading activity on this specific outcome range.

August temperatures in New York typically peak between 82–88°F, with historical data from the National Weather Service showing that extreme heat events above 95°F occur in roughly 15–20% of August days across a multi-decade sample. The 11th holds no particular meteorological significance; summer heat patterns depend on Atlantic ridge positioning and tropical system activity in early August. Comparable markets on other platforms—Kalshi's weather contracts and Betfair's temperature bands—have shown wider participation when settlement dates approach within two weeks, suggesting current low activity may reflect the 2026 timeframe being too distant for active pricing.

Traders monitoring this market should track the National Weather Service's extended forecast beginning late July 2026, along with Atlantic hurricane season activity, which can suppress temperatures through cloud cover and precipitation. The resolution methodology's emphasis on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than alternative reporting sources creates a technical dependency worth noting; different platforms may reference different weather stations or data aggregators, potentially creating arbitrage opportunities if comparable markets on Smarkets or other books use alternative resolution sources. Verification of the exact LaGuardia station designation and data-pull timing will be critical as the settlement window approaches.

Methodology

We read Highest temperature in NYC on August 11? from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?

Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.

Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?

Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.

Which platform is accessible globally?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Robinhood Prediction Markets has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.

Are all these platforms regulated?

No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.

Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?

Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Robinhood Prediction Markets offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.