Highest temperature in NYC on August 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City's maximum temperature on 13 August 2026 will be measured at LaGuardia Airport Station and recorded in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, with settlement determined by that primary source rather than the Day High & Low summary section. The market currently shows 0% implied probability across the crowd, suggesting either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds.

Historical August temperatures at LaGuardia provide the baseline for calibration. The airport has recorded August highs ranging from 72°F to 99°F over the past three decades, with a median around 84°F. The 2024 August average peaked at 86°F, whilst the 1994 heat wave pushed readings to 96°F. Current climate patterns show August typically experiences afternoon thunderstorms that suppress peak temperatures, though heat domes occasionally override this effect. The 0% probability reading suggests traders may be anchored to recent cooler Augusts or awaiting clearer resolution band definitions before committing capital.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service's extended forecast beginning late July 2026, particularly any heat advisories or anomalous pressure systems developing in early August. The Atlantic hurricane season peaks in September but can influence August weather patterns through tropical moisture and steering currents. Wunderground's historical data consistency matters here—discrepancies between its Daily Observations and Day High & Low sections have occasionally created settlement disputes on other weather markets. Cross-referencing with NOAA's official records and the National Centers for Environmental Information will be essential for dispute resolution confidence, particularly if the recorded temperature falls near range boundaries.

Methodology

We read Highest temperature in NYC on August 13? from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?

Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.

What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?

Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.

Which platform is accessible globally?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Robinhood Prediction Markets has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.

Are all these platforms regulated?

No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.

Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?

Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Robinhood Prediction Markets offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.