Highest temperature in NYC on August 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

The key event is the day’s **highest temperature at LaGuardia Airport**, which settles this market, not the citywide headline temperature. That matters because airport readings can differ from Central Park and other borough stations, and the market’s outcome is tied to the Wunderground history page for KLGA rather than a broader NYC composite. The current crowd-implied probability of **0% YES** is difficult to reconcile with the existing Polymarket price screen, which shows a spread of possible temperature bands still trading in double digits, suggesting that the live market view is not uniformly priced around a single extreme outcome.[1][3][4]

For comparison, late-summer New York highs often sit in the low-to-mid 80s Fahrenheit, with August climatology and forecast products pointing to that general range rather than a collapse into a very cold or very hot tail.[2][11][12] Recent New York heat coverage also showed how quickly the city can swing into the 90s or even 100F during a heat dome, which is relevant because a single hot afternoon is enough to move the final band decisively.[5][8][9] On platforms, Polymarket expresses this as implied probability in cents, while Kalshi-style markets are usually quoted as contract prices that map directly to probability; Betfair and Smarkets instead use decimal odds/liquidity-style framing, and fees can materially change the effective price. KYC and access also differ: Polymarket and Kalshi are generally more restricted by jurisdiction and identity checks than exchange-style books, which affects who can participate and how quickly prices converge.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in NYC on August 2? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?

Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.

What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?

Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.

Which platform has the deepest liquidity?

Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.

What about Smarkets as an alternative?

Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.

Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?

Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Robinhood Prediction Markets offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.