Highest temperature in NYC on August 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York’s highest temperature on 7 August is usually determined by the day’s warmest airport or city station reading, and this contract is tied to LaGuardia’s recorded maximum in Weather Underground’s Daily Observations table rather than any summary high. That matters because the current crowd-implied **0% YES** suggests traders are either seeing the outcome as already fully priced into the other side, or they are discounting the chance that late-observed readings or data revisions could move the final band. Polymarket shows probabilities directly, while Kalshi and Betfair typically present prices as contract or decimal odds, so the same weather view can look different across books even before fees and spreads are considered; Smarkets also tends to show a tighter, exchange-style market with commission rather than a retail margin.

Historical comparison points are useful because NYC August highs often land in the upper 80s to low 90s Fahrenheit, with official airport stations sometimes running a touch hotter than Manhattan’s classic Central Park site. Recent NYC heat waves have shown how quickly LaGuardia can print extreme readings when the region is under a strong Bermuda High, including a 104°F reading at LaGuardia during the early July 2026 heat event reported by the New York Times. That makes the market’s outcome bands more sensitive to a brief afternoon spike than to the day’s average feel, especially since the settlement source is a station-specific maximum rather than a citywide forecast.

For traders, the key catalysts are the final forecast trend into 7 August, any afternoon thunderstorm or marine-layer influence, and whether LaGuardia’s observing sequence produces an early peak before cloud cover or convection limits further warming. Weather Underground’s history page and the market rule that later datapoints can still be considered until the next day’s first observation mean the close of the data window matters as much as the forecast itself. On platform comparison, Polymarket is the most straightforward if you want percentage pricing, whereas Kalshi, Betfair and Smarkets require translating odds and accounting for fees, which can materially change the apparent edge on a tight weather range.

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Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in NYC on August 7? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?

Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.

What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?

Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.

What about Smarkets as an alternative?

Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.

Which platform is accessible globally?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Robinhood Prediction Markets has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.

Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?

Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Robinhood Prediction Markets offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.