Highest temperature in NYC on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City is currently enduring a severe heatwave, with LaGuardia Airport recording its highest-ever midnight temperature of 94°F (34.4°C) on 4 July 2026, as the heat persists into the second week of the month[2][3]. This market tracks the daily high at the same station for 12 July 2026, resolving via Weather Underground data, while the crowd-implied probability for any specific outcome sits at 0% YES, suggesting extreme uncertainty or a lack of liquidity on the platform[1].

Historical July data for LaGuardia shows daily highs typically ranging between 73°F and 91°F in 2026, though record-breaking spikes have occurred, such as 107°F in 1966 and 102°F recently in early July 2026[3][4][9]. The current 0% probability diverges sharply from platforms like Kalshi or Betfair, where decimal odds would likely reflect a non-zero chance of extreme heat given the active heatwave, whereas Polymarket’s implied probability structure here masks the underlying risk through its zero-liquidity display.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s daily climate reports for LaGuardia and any extended forecast updates from FOX Weather regarding the persistence of the East Coast heatwave[3][8]. The settlement depends entirely on the single highest reading recorded before the 12:00 UTC cutoff on 12 July, a dependency that creates distinct fee and KYC implications when comparing Robinhood’s streamlined access against Smarkets’ higher fee tiers for similar weather derivatives.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in NYC on July 12? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?

Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.

Which platform has the deepest liquidity?

Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.

What about Smarkets as an alternative?

Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.

Are all these platforms regulated?

No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.

Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?

Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Robinhood Prediction Markets offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.