Highest temperature in NYC on July 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 19 July 2026 will determine the settlement range for this market. The current 0% implied probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the exact range boundaries or have not yet engaged with this specific date-location pairing. LaGuardia's July historical data shows typical highs between 82–88°F, with occasional peaks above 90°F during heat waves. The National Weather Service records from the past decade indicate that extreme heat events (95°F+) occur in roughly 15–20% of July days in the New York metropolitan area, though such occurrences cluster around mid-month heat domes rather than mid-to-late July.

The settlement mechanism relies on Wunderground's historical weather database for LaGuardia, which aggregates National Weather Service observations. Traders should note that different prediction platforms handle weather markets with varying precision: Polymarket and Kalshi both offer Fahrenheit-denominated contracts but differ in fee structures (Polymarket charges 2% on winnings; Kalshi's fees vary by contract type) and liquidity depth. Betfair and Smarkets, whilst offering decimal odds formats that appeal to European traders, have historically shown lower volumes on US-specific weather contracts. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 19 July 2026, which aligns with typical daily high temperatures occurring in early-to-mid afternoon local time.

Methodology

We read Highest temperature in NYC on July 19? from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?

Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.

Which platform has the deepest liquidity?

Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.

Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?

Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.

What about Smarkets as an alternative?

Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.

Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?

Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Robinhood Prediction Markets offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.