Highest temperature in NYC on July 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event hinges on the peak temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 2 July 2026, measured in Fahrenheit and resolved via Weather Underground. While the current crowd-implied probability for a specific outcome sits at 0%, this contradicts active trading on Polymarket where "98–99°F" commands a 27% chance and "100–101°F" holds 22% [1]. This divergence highlights how platforms like Polymarket display implied probabilities directly, whereas Kalshi or Betfair often emphasise decimal odds, creating distinct risk perceptions for the same underlying weather data.

Historical precedents frame the current volatility; LaGuardia’s record high is 107°F, set on 3 July 1966, with July 2026 forecasts suggesting daily highs between 81°F and 99°F [2][5]. Today’s climatological report already notes a maximum of 93°F at 12 PM, rising to 97°F later [4]. Traders comparing Robinhood’s fee structure against Smarkets’ lower commissions should note that Polymarket’s 0% implied probability may reflect liquidity gaps rather than genuine impossibility, especially given current readings of 100°F at nearby JFK [6].

Key catalysts include the National Weather Service’s daily climatological updates and real-time shifts in the heat dome over the Northeast. With settlement ending 2026-07-02T12:00:00Z, traders must monitor the 12 PM to 3 PM window when temperatures peak. Recent data from Weather Underground confirms LaGuardia’s average maximum is 92°F, but the current trend suggests a push toward the upper forecast range [7]. Platforms requiring KYC, like Kalshi, may see slower reaction times compared to Polymarket’s open access, affecting how quickly new temperature data influences pricing.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in NYC on July 2? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?

Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.

What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?

Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.

Which platform has the deepest liquidity?

Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.

Are all these platforms regulated?

No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.

Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?

Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Robinhood Prediction Markets offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.