Highest temperature in NYC on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 24 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport will determine which range this market resolves to. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC that day, giving traders a fixed endpoint to assess meteorological data published on Wunderground's historical records for that specific station.

July temperatures at LaGuardia typically peak between 85°F and 92°F, with the 30-year normal high around 84°F. The station's all-time July record stands at 104°F, set in 1966, though readings above 95°F occur roughly once per decade during summer months. The current 0% implied probability across prediction markets suggests either extreme confidence in a specific outcome or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds. Comparing platforms: Polymarket and Kalshi both offer this market but diverge on fee structures—Kalshi charges flat fees on resolution whilst Polymarket applies percentage-based taker fees—which affects expected value calculations for tight temperature ranges. Betfair and Smarkets, where available in applicable jurisdictions, typically display decimal odds rather than implied probabilities, requiring manual conversion for direct comparison.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service's extended forecast for the New York region as mid-July 2026 approaches. Heat dome patterns, Atlantic tropical systems, and upper-level atmospheric blocking are the primary catalysts affecting July temperature extremes in the Northeast. Historical precedent shows that anomalous heat events cluster around mid-month rather than late July, though individual year variation remains substantial. The market's current state reflects genuine uncertainty rather than consensus pricing.

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in NYC on July 24? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Which platform has the deepest liquidity?

Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.

Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?

Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.

What about Smarkets as an alternative?

Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.

Which platform is accessible globally?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Robinhood Prediction Markets has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.

Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?

Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Robinhood Prediction Markets offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.