Highest temperature in NYC on June 26?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event centres on the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 26 June 2026, measured in degrees Fahrenheit and sourced from Weather Underground. With the current crowd-implied probability for a “YES” outcome sitting at 0%, traders are effectively betting that the temperature will not exceed the highest threshold offered, suggesting the market expects a relatively cool day or that the resolution range is set well above historical norms for late June.

Historically, late June in New York City often sees highs between 75°F and 85°F, though recent years have shown greater volatility. In June 2025, Central Park recorded 96°F, breaking a 137-year record during a severe heatwave [7]. The National Weather Service reported that the Northeast recently experienced temperatures soaring into the high 80s to low 90s, with peak warmth on 25 June 2026 reaching 87°F in New York City [2]. These comparable cases indicate that while extreme heat is possible, the 0% probability may reflect either an unusually high resolution threshold or a market expectation of cooler conditions due to an approaching cold front.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s daily climatological reports for LaGuardia, which track maximum temperatures and climate normals [3]. A cold front is anticipated to bring scattered thunderstorms and cooler air from Saturday night into Sunday, potentially suppressing temperatures on 26 June [2]. Additionally, humidity levels are expected to rise, which could make conditions feel warmer even if actual temperatures dip. On platforms like Polymarket, implied probabilities are displayed directly, whereas Kalshi and Betfair use decimal odds, affecting how traders interpret risk. Fee structures and KYC requirements also diverge significantly, with some platforms requiring identity verification while others remain more accessible to international users.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in NYC on June 26? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). PolyGram routes every trade directly into Polymarket's on-chain settlement, which is why payouts land fastest.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.