Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

San Francisco’s peak heat on 14 July 2026 will be measured at the San Francisco International Airport Station, with the market resolving to the Fahrenheit range containing the day’s highest temperature recorded by Wunderground. The crowd currently assigns a 93% probability to the 78–79°F range, while 80–81°F holds just 6%, leaving the “YES” outcome for any other range at 0% [1]. This stark concentration contrasts sharply with how Kalshi or Betfair might frame the same event: Polymarket displays outcomes as implied probabilities summing to 100%, whereas Kalshi uses binary contracts priced in cents (decimal odds) and Betfair/Smarkets list traditional decimal odds, creating divergent risk perceptions for traders comparing liquidity and pricing mechanics across platforms.

Historical July highs in San Francisco rarely breach 80°F due to the city’s marine microclimate, with most years clustering between 75–79°F, which aligns with the market’s heavy weighting on 78–79°F. The 0% implied probability for “YES” (any range outside the top two) reflects this climatic consistency, though extreme heat domes from the Central Valley could push temperatures higher, as seen in July 2024 when a rare inland surge briefly hit 82°F at KSFO. Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s heat dome forecasts and Pacific Ocean temperature anomalies, as a sudden shift in the marine layer could invalidate the current consensus.

No immediate catalysts are scheduled, but the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 14 July 2026, meaning traders must account for time-zone discrepancies between US Pacific Time and UTC. Polymarket’s fee structure (0.1% maker, 0.2% taker) and minimal KYC requirements differ from Kalshi’s stricter US-only KYC and Betfair’s higher commission rates, affecting net returns for international participants. A sudden heat advisory from NOAA could trigger rapid repricing, though current data suggests stability in the 78–79°F band.

Sources: 1

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 14? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?

Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.

Which platform has the deepest liquidity?

Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.

Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?

Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.

Which platform is accessible globally?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Robinhood Prediction Markets has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.

Are all these platforms regulated?

No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.