Highest temperature in Seoul on June 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 25 June 2026, Seoul faces a midsummer day where monsoon rains are expected to suppress peak temperatures, aligning with the current crowd-implied probability of 0% for extreme heat. Historical data from June 2026 shows daily highs in Seoul ranging from 22°C to 34°C, with the highest recorded maximum of 34.0°C occurring on 19 June, while recent forecasts for 25 June indicate midday highs near 27°C accompanied by heavy afternoon showers [1][2][7]. This pattern suggests that the Incheon International Airport Station, which typically records slightly cooler temperatures than central Seoul, will likely remain well below thresholds that would trigger a “YES” resolution in this market.

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s short-range forecasts and Wunderground’s hourly updates for any unexpected heat spikes, though current schedules point to continued cloud cover and precipitation [5]. Recent broadcasts from KBS confirm that heavy downpours are forecast from the afternoon, with daytime temperatures capped at 26–27°C, reinforcing the low probability of extreme heat [4]. When comparing platforms like Polymarket, Kalshi, and Betfair, note that Polymarket uses decimal odds while Kalshi relies on implied probability, and fee structures vary significantly—Kalshi charges no trading fees but requires KYC, whereas Polymarket offers global access with lower barriers but higher gas costs. These divergences affect liquidity and pricing efficiency on this specific weather event.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We read Highest temperature in Seoul on June 25? from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live quote comes directly from the Polygon order book; the other three are listed with their platform attributes — fees, KYC, settlement currency, payment options — because a 1:1 contract comparison without API access would be guesswork.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). PolyGram routes every trade directly into Polymarket's on-chain settlement, which is why payouts land fastest.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.