Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo's highest temperature on 13 August 2026 will be measured at Haneda Airport Station and recorded in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, with settlement determined by that primary source rather than the Day High & Low summary section. The market currently shows 0% implied probability, suggesting traders have already positioned around specific temperature bands rather than leaving open-ended uncertainty about whether any reading will occur.

Historical August temperatures at Tokyo Haneda provide the baseline for calibrating expectations. The airport station has recorded August highs ranging from 32°C to 37°C over recent decades, with 2023 seeing peaks near 35°C and 2022 reaching 36°C during the summer heat dome that affected East Asia. The 0% reading on this particular market likely reflects traders concentrating volume into the most probable temperature ranges—typically 33–36°C for mid-August—rather than genuine doubt about whether a measurable high will be recorded. Across prediction platforms, this dynamic manifests differently: Polymarket's decimal odds format can obscure extremely low probabilities, whilst Kalshi and Betfair display implied percentages more transparently, making the absence of YES volume more visually apparent.

Traders should monitor Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts released in early August 2026, which typically provide 10-day outlooks by late July. Pacific typhoon activity during early-to-mid August could suppress temperatures, whilst high-pressure systems would elevate them. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 13 August, meaning Haneda's final recorded observation for that calendar day determines resolution; traders on Smarkets and other European books may face earlier practical deadlines due to timezone conversion and platform-specific settlement procedures.

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 13? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?

Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.

What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?

Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.

Which platform has the deepest liquidity?

Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.

Are all these platforms regulated?

No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.

Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?

Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Robinhood Prediction Markets offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.