Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s maximum temperature will be set by the hottest reading at Haneda Airport across the day, and the market’s 0% yes price implies traders see an outcome above the listed bands as very unlikely. That matters because this is an airport station read, not a citywide average, so local sea-breeze effects, cloud cover and any late-afternoon showers can pull the final peak a degree or two away from what headline Tokyo forecasts suggest.[2][7][11]

The historical frame still points to a fairly hot August profile: Tokyo’s average maximum is around 31°C, while broader summer conditions commonly produce daytime highs in the low-to-mid 30s, with occasional spikes above 35°C during heatwaves.[9][10][12][14] Polymarket shows the crowd clustering around 34°C and 33°C, which is consistent with that seasonal range, while its prices are shown as implied probabilities; on Kalshi, the same event would typically trade in dollars and cents per contract, and on Betfair or Smarkets the market would be expressed through decimal odds with exchange commission rather than a pure probability display. KYC reach also differs, with exchange access and jurisdictional limits varying more sharply outside Polymarket’s crypto-native setup.

For catalysts, the main drivers are the day-of synoptic pattern: whether the Pacific High stays dominant, how strong morning sunshine and subsidence warming are, and whether any scattered showers or sea-breeze fronts arrive before the settlement cut-off at 12:00 UTC. Wunderground’s result source is the Haneda daily history page, so traders should watch the intraday peak there rather than broader Tokyo forecasts; recent reporting on Japan’s summer heat has also underlined how quickly central areas can jump into the mid-30s when heat advisories persist.[2][8][13]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 2? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?

Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.

Which platform has the deepest liquidity?

Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.

What about Smarkets as an alternative?

Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.

Which platform is accessible globally?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Robinhood Prediction Markets has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.

Are all these platforms regulated?

No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.