Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s highest temperature on 16 July 2026 will be recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, with the market resolving to the Celsius range containing that peak. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on that date, using Wunderground’s daily history for RJTT as the definitive source. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for any “YES” outcome, suggesting traders view the specific temperature range in question as effectively impossible under expected July conditions.

Historically, mid-July in Tokyo sees peak temperatures between 30°C and 35°C at Haneda, with extreme outliers rarely exceeding 37°C. In 2023, Tokyo recorded 36.8°C on 19 July, while 2024’s highest was 35.2°C on 12 July, indicating a consistent upper bound well below the threshold implied by the 0% probability. Platforms diverge sharply here: Polymarket displays implied probabilities directly, whereas Kalshi, Betfair, and Smarkets use decimal odds, requiring conversion to assess the same 0% stance. Fee structures also vary—Polymarket charges no maker fees but includes a 2% taker fee, while Kalshi imposes a 1% fee on both sides, and Betfair’s commission ranges from 5% to 65% depending on market volume.

Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency’s weekly forecast updates and any sudden shifts in the Pacific high-pressure system, which drives summer heatwaves. A recent Met Office observation for Haneda confirms current conditions remain typical for early July, with no anomalous heat signatures detected in the last 24 hours [1]. Regulatory differences further shape access: Kalshi requires US KYC, Betfair and Smarkets serve UK/EU users with lighter verification, while Polymarket operates globally with minimal KYC, creating distinct liquidity pools for the same weather event.

Sources: 1

Methodology

We read Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 16? from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?

Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.

What about Smarkets as an alternative?

Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.

Which platform is accessible globally?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Robinhood Prediction Markets has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.

Are all these platforms regulated?

No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.

Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?

Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Robinhood Prediction Markets offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.