Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s highest temperature on 24 July will be measured at Haneda Airport and settled against Wunderground’s daily history page, with the market resolving to whichever Celsius band contains the day’s peak. On Polymarket, the current crowd pricing points most heavily to **32°C** at **38%**, with **33°C** close behind at **31%**, which already implies a fairly tight distribution around the low-30s rather than an extreme heat outcome.[1]

That shape is broadly consistent with how summer Tokyo temperature markets usually trade: participants concentrate around adjacent bands, while the tails only widen if a heat warning or a cooler onshore flow becomes more credible. For platform comparison, Polymarket displays **implied probabilities** directly, whereas Kalshi and Betfair-style books are typically read through **decimal odds**, so the same view on a low-30s outcome can look different even when the underlying expectation is similar. Smarkets generally publishes **decimal prices** with an exchange-style market structure, while Polymarket’s event shares are more straightforward but depend on whether users are comfortable with crypto-native access and settlement mechanics.[1]

For catalysts, the key drivers are the Tokyo forecast updates for maximum temperature, cloud cover, wind direction, and any heat advisories issued by the Japan Meteorological Agency, because a modest shift in the forecast can move the highest band at settlement. Traders should also watch how each venue handles access and verification: Polymarket is fully on-chain, while Kalshi, Betfair and Smarkets rely on regulated account opening and KYC, which can affect who is able to participate even when the view on the weather is the same.[1]

Sources: 1

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 24? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?

Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.

Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?

Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.

What about Smarkets as an alternative?

Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.

Are all these platforms regulated?

No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.

Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?

Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Robinhood Prediction Markets offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.