Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s maximum temperature for 27 July is the key variable, with the market settling on the highest reading recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport Station on that calendar day. The current **0% YES** crowd price suggests traders are assigning little or no probability to the relevant temperature range being reached under the contract’s settlement rules, but with weather markets the crucial issue is always the exact source reading rather than a citywide headline forecast.

Historical context is usually the best guide here: Tokyo in late July often sits in the high 20s to low 30s Celsius, and outcomes near the upper end of that band matter because small shifts can move the final reading across a contract boundary. On Polymarket, that probability is typically shown directly as a percentage, whereas Kalshi and Smarkets often present the same event through different price conventions, and Betfair will usually quote decimal odds rather than an explicit probability. That means a “0%” quote on one venue may still correspond to a small but non-zero tradable price once bid-ask spreads and fees are included.

The main catalysts are the short-range Tokyo forecast, any heat advisory or front movement affecting the Kanto region, and the timing of the day’s peak temperature relative to the settlement window. Traders also need to watch platform-specific frictions: KYC availability, withdrawal access, and fees can differ materially between Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair, and Smarkets, so the same weather view may price differently across books even before spread and commission are taken into account.

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 27? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?

Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.

What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?

Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.

Which platform has the deepest liquidity?

Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.

Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?

Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.

Which platform is accessible globally?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Robinhood Prediction Markets has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.