Highest temperature in Wuhan on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wuhan will experience peak summer heat on 11 August 2026, with the highest temperature recorded at Tianhe International Airport Station determining the settlement outcome. The market resolves using Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than its summary display, a distinction that matters when automated systems report conflicting figures. Current odds across major platforms show material divergence: Polymarket's 0% implied probability reflects minimal trading activity, whilst Kalshi and Betfair typically price similar weather events with tighter spreads once liquidity builds closer to settlement. Fee structures favour different trader profiles—Polymarket charges 2% on winnings, Betfair takes commission on net profit, and Kalshi operates fixed spreads—making arbitrage opportunities possible if sentiment shifts.

August temperatures in Wuhan consistently exceed 35°C, with historical records from 2013 reaching 40.3°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either confident the market's temperature bands exclude realistic outcomes, or liquidity remains insufficient to establish meaningful pricing. Comparable weather markets on Smarkets show similar patterns during low-activity periods, with probabilities clustering at extremes until closer to event date.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in late July 2026, which typically provide 10-day outlooks with reasonable accuracy. El Niño or La Niña conditions entering late summer could shift temperature expectations materially. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on 11 August, requiring traders to account for timezone conversion between London market hours and Wuhan local time when assessing final data releases.

Methodology

We read Highest temperature in Wuhan on August 11? from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?

Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.

What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?

Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.

Which platform is accessible globally?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Robinhood Prediction Markets has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.

Are all these platforms regulated?

No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.

Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?

Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Robinhood Prediction Markets offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.