Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
56% | 44% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
56% | 44% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 56% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 56% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 48% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 47% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2? | 45% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1? | 44% |
| Game 1 Winner | 39% |
| Game 2 Winner | 39% |
| Game Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs SK Gaming (+1.5) | 39% |
| Match Winner | 34% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 28% |
Market context
SK Gaming meet Team Vitality in an LEC regular-season best-of-three, with the crowd currently pricing SK at 39% to win, which implies Vitality as the marginal favourite. That is broadly consistent with the recent head-to-head: Vitality beat SK 2-1 on 2 May 2026, and several stat aggregators show Vitality with the stronger long-run record in the matchup, including 20 wins to SK’s 12 in one series view and 15 to 9 in another, though the exact totals vary by database coverage.[1][2][4][6]
For comparing books, the same view will look different on each platform: Polymarket shows a straight implied-probability market, while Kalshi typically displays contract prices around \$0.39 for a 39% read; Betfair and Smarkets are usually easier to compare in decimal odds, where 39% would translate to roughly 2.56 before fees. Fee treatment matters because exchange commission and market spread can make a “fair” price look different even when the underlying probability is the same; KYC and access also differ, with regulated exchanges generally offering broader geographic reach than crypto-native venues.[12][13]
The main catalysts are roster and scheduling confirmation, because this market settles only on the played match and is sensitive to any postponement or cancellation before the 7-day window expires. Recent match pages and recap sources indicate these teams have already met in 2026, including a 2-1 Vitality win in May and another Vitality victory in spring, so traders will likely focus more on day-of line-up news, patch context and whether the fixture starts on time than on a fresh rivalry angle.[8][9][14]
Methodology
We read LoL: SK Gaming vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Regular Season from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Robinhood Prediction Markets has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Robinhood Prediction Markets offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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