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LoL: Top Esports vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) - LPL Regional Finals Playoffs

Which venue prices "LoL: Top Esports vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) - LPL Regional Finals Playoffs" best? Direct comparison of Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair and Smarkets.

Both Teams Slay a Dragon 80% O/U 3.5 Games 76% Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? 61% Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? 60% Volume: $1.0M Liquidity: $749K Closes: 17 Sept 2026
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LoL: Top Esports vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) - LPL Regional Finals Playoffs

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 80% 20% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Go to the live market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 80% 20% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Go to the live market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Go to the live market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Go to the live market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Go to the live market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Both Teams Slay a Dragon80%
O/U 3.5 Games76%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?61%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?60%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3?60%
Any Player Penta Kill52%
First Blood in Game 2?52%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon51%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon51%
Any Player Quadra Kill51%
First Blood in Game 4?51%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
First Blood in Game 3?50%
First Blood in Game 1?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 4?50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor49%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors49%
Game 1 Winner48%
Game 3 Winner48%
Game 4 Winner48%
Game 2 Winner47%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3?47%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?47%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?46%
Match Winner44%
Game Handicap: IG (-1.5) vs Top Esports (+1.5)37%
Odd/Even Total Kills37%
O/U 4.5 Games36%
Odd/Even Total Kills28%
Odd/Even Total Kills28%
Odd/Even Total Kills28%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4?28%
Odd/Even Total Kills27%
Any Player Penta Kill26%
Any Player Penta Kill21%
Any Player Penta Kill16%
Game Handicap: IG (-2.5) vs Top Esports (+2.5)14%

Market context

LoL: Top Esports vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) - LPL Regional Finals Playoffs — current market-implied probability: 80%. This market refers to the LoL Upper bracket final match between Top Esports and Invictus Gaming in the LPL Regional Finals Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 17, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET. This mar…

Methodology

This page compares LoL: Top Esports vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) - LPL Regional Finals Playoffs specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
What about Smarkets as an alternative?
Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
Which platform is accessible globally?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Robinhood Prediction Markets has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
Alex ChenAlex ChenPrediction Market AnalystandJordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction Reporter

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