Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-2.5) vs Pcific Esports (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Pcific Esports (-2.5) vs Gentle Mates (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 15.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-3.5) vs Pcific Esports (+3.5) | 90% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-4.5) vs Pcific Esports (+4.5) | 90% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Pcific Esports (-6.5) vs Gentle Mates (+6.5) | 90% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Pcific Esports (-7.5) vs Gentle Mates (+7.5) | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 90% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-7.5) vs Pcific Esports (+7.5) | 65% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Pcific Esports (-3.5) vs Gentle Mates (+3.5) | 53% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Pcific Esports (-4.5) vs Gentle Mates (+4.5) | 53% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Pcific Esports (-5.5) vs Gentle Mates (+5.5) | 51% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-5.5) vs Pcific Esports (+5.5) | 51% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 15.5 | 51% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-3.5) vs Pcific Esports (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-2.5) vs Pcific Esports (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-4.5) vs Pcific Esports (+4.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-5.5) vs Pcific Esports (+5.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-6.5) vs Pcific Esports (+6.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Pcific Esports (-8.5) vs Gentle Mates (+8.5) | 10% |
| Match Winner | 6% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-3.5) vs Pcific Esports (+3.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-2.5) vs Pcific Esports (+2.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-4.5) vs Pcific Esports (+4.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-5.5) vs Pcific Esports (+5.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: M8 (-1.5) vs Pcific Esports (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 0% |
| Map Handicap: PCFIC (-1.5) vs Gentle Mates (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-7.5) vs Pcific Esports (+7.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 0% |
Market context
Valorant: Pcific Esports vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha — current market-implied probability: 100%. This market refers to the Valorant match between Pcific Esports and Gentle Mates in the VCT EMEA Group Alpha, initially scheduled for July 16 at 2:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Pcific Esports…
Methodology
We read Valorant: Pcific Esports vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Robinhood Prediction Markets has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
Trade Valorant: Pcific Esports vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - VCT… on Robinhood Prediction Markets
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