Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
77% | 23% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
77% | 23% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Victor Marx | 77% |
| Barbara Kirkmeyer | 24% |
| Scott Bottoms | 0% |
| Joshua Griffin | 0% |
| Greg Lopez | 0% |
| Will McBride | 0% |
| Stevan Gess | 0% |
| Brycen Garrison | 0% |
| Daniel Thomas | 0% |
| Other | 0% |
| Candidate B | 0% |
| Candidate D | 0% |
| Candidate F | 0% |
| Candidate H | 0% |
| Candidate J | 0% |
| Candidate L | 0% |
| Candidate N | 0% |
| Candidate P | 0% |
| Candidate R | 0% |
| Candidate T | 0% |
| Candidate V | 0% |
| Candidate X | 0% |
| Candidate Z | 0% |
| Mark Baisley | 0% |
| Jason Clark | 0% |
| Jason Mikesell | 0% |
| Jon Gray-Ginsberg | 0% |
| Bob Brinkerhoff | 0% |
| Robert Moore | 0% |
| Candidate A | 0% |
| Candidate C | 0% |
| Candidate E | 0% |
| Candidate G | 0% |
| Candidate I | 0% |
| Candidate K | 0% |
| Candidate M | 0% |
| Candidate O | 0% |
| Candidate Q | 0% |
| Candidate S | 0% |
| Candidate U | 0% |
| Candidate W | 0% |
| Candidate Y | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 77% chance of colorado governor republican primary winner. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Colorado, scheduled to take place on June 30, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overa…
Methodology
This page compares Colorado Governor Republican Primary Winner specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Robinhood Prediction Markets has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Robinhood Prediction Markets offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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