Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event driving this market is the permanent removal of a sitting head of government from office before the end of 2026, excluding temporary suspensions or caretaker roles. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for any leader departing permanently, with the market overwhelmingly favouring "None before 2027" as the leading outcome.

Historically, permanent removals without election outcomes are rare; recent cases like Yoon Suk Yeol’s impeachment suspension or Gabriel Attal’s caretaker tenure in France illustrate how temporary or interim roles do not satisfy resolution criteria. Even Keir Starmer’s announced leadership change in the UK Labour Party, where he remains caretaker prime minister until a successor is chosen, does not constitute permanent removal. This pattern frames the 0% probability as consistent with the strict definition of "ceasing to occupy office" permanently.

Traders should monitor official announcements of resignation or removal, scheduled departures due to election losses, and any constitutional mechanisms triggering permanent power transfers. Recent reports from Sky News indicate Andy Burnham could be announced as Labour leader by 17 July, but unless Starmer is permanently removed from office, the market condition remains unmet. Platform comparisons show Polymarket uses decimal odds (e.g., 100% for Schoof) while Kalshi and Betfair emphasise implied probability and KYC requirements, with differing fee structures affecting liquidity on this specific market.

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Methodology

This page compares Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban) specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.