Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Granby: Aleksandar Vukic vs Liam Broady | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Granby: Aleksandar Vukic vs Liam Broady Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Granby: Aleksandar Vukic vs Liam Broady Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Granby: Aleksandar Vukic vs Liam Broady Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Granby: Aleksandar Vukic vs Liam Broady Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Granby: Aleksandar Vukic vs Liam Broady Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Granby: Aleksandar Vukic vs Liam Broady Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Granby: Aleksandar Vukic vs Liam Broady Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Granby: Aleksandar Vukic vs Liam Broady Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| Granby: Aleksandar Vukic vs Liam Broady Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Granby: Aleksandar Vukic vs Liam Broady Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| Granby: Aleksandar Vukic vs Liam Broady Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| Granby: Aleksandar Vukic vs Liam Broady Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Granby: Aleksandar Vukic vs Liam Broady Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Granby: Aleksandar Vukic vs Liam Broady Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of granby: aleksandar vukic vs liam broady. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the tennis match between Aleksandar Vukic and Liam Broady in the Granby, originally scheduled for July 13, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'A…
Methodology
This page compares Granby: Aleksandar Vukic vs Liam Broady specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Robinhood Prediction Markets offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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