Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Breel Embolo: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Johan Manzambi: 1+ goals + assists | 100% |
| Breel Embolo: 2+ shots | 97% |
| Dan Ndoye: 1+ shots | 91% |
| Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals + assists | 90% |
| Breel Embolo: 1+ shots on target | 77% |
| Breel Embolo: 1+ goals + assists | 77% |
| Dan Ndoye: 1+ shots on target | 76% |
| Gregor Kobel: 2+ saves | 76% |
| Breel Embolo: 1+ shots | 75% |
| Ibrahim Maza: 1+ shots | 53% |
| Johan Manzambi: 1+ assists | 53% |
| Cédric Itten: 4+ shots | 51% |
| Christian Fassnacht: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Dan Ndoye: 3+ shots | 51% |
| Fares Chaïbi: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Mohamed El Amine Amoura: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Noah Okafor: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Ruben Vargas: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Adil Boulbina: 1+ goals | 50% |
| Cédric Itten: 1+ goals | 50% |
| Cédric Itten: 2+ goals | 50% |
| Mohamed El Amine Amoura: 1+ goals | 50% |
| Adil Boulbina: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Adil Boulbina: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Adil Boulbina: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Adil Boulbina: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Adil Boulbina: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Amine Gouiri: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Amine Gouiri: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Amine Gouiri: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Amine Gouiri: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Anis Hadj Moussa: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Anis Hadj Moussa: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Cédric Itten: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Cédric Itten: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Cédric Itten: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Cédric Itten: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Christian Fassnacht: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Christian Fassnacht: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Christian Fassnacht: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Christian Fassnacht: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Fares Chaïbi: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Fares Chaïbi: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Fares Chaïbi: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Ibrahim Maza: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Ibrahim Maza: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Ibrahim Maza: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Ibrahim Maza: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Mohamed El Amine Amoura: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Mohamed El Amine Amoura: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Mohamed El Amine Amoura: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Mohamed El Amine Amoura: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Nadhir Benbouali: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Nadhir Benbouali: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Nadhir Benbouali: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Nadhir Benbouali: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Noah Okafor: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Noah Okafor: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Noah Okafor: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Noah Okafor: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Riyad Mahrez: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Riyad Mahrez: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Riyad Mahrez: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Riyad Mahrez: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Zeki Amdouni: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Zeki Amdouni: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Zeki Amdouni: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Zeki Amdouni: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Zeki Amdouni: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Amine Gouiri: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Amine Gouiri: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Adil Boulbina: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Adil Boulbina: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Adil Boulbina: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Adil Boulbina: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Amine Gouiri: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Amine Gouiri: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Amine Gouiri: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Cédric Itten: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Cédric Itten: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Cédric Itten: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Cédric Itten: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nadhir Benbouali: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Noah Okafor: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Noah Okafor: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Noah Okafor: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Zeki Amdouni: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Zeki Amdouni: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Zeki Amdouni: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Zeki Amdouni: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ibrahim Maza: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ibrahim Maza: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Riyad Mahrez: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Anis Hadj Moussa: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Christian Fassnacht: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Christian Fassnacht: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Christian Fassnacht: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Fares Chaïbi: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Fares Chaïbi: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ibrahim Maza: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ibrahim Maza: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ibrahim Maza: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mohamed El Amine Amoura: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mohamed El Amine Amoura: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mohamed El Amine Amoura: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nadhir Benbouali: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nadhir Benbouali: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Riyad Mahrez: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Riyad Mahrez: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Riyad Mahrez: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gregor Kobel: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Gregor Kobel: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Gregor Kobel: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Luca Zidane: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Luca Zidane: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Luca Zidane: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Luca Zidane: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Melvin Mastil: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Melvin Mastil: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Melvin Mastil: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Melvin Mastil: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Amine Gouiri: 1+ shots | 47% |
| Fares Chaïbi: 3+ shots | 47% |
| Ruben Vargas: 1+ goals + assists | 11% |
| Adil Boulbina: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Adil Boulbina: 3+ goals | 10% |
| Anis Hadj Moussa: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Anis Hadj Moussa: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Cédric Itten: 3+ goals | 10% |
| Christian Fassnacht: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Christian Fassnacht: 3+ goals | 10% |
| Fares Chaïbi: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Mohamed El Amine Amoura: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Mohamed El Amine Amoura: 3+ goals | 10% |
| Nadhir Benbouali: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Nadhir Benbouali: 3+ goals | 10% |
| Noah Okafor: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Noah Okafor: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Noah Okafor: 3+ goals | 10% |
| Zeki Amdouni: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Anis Hadj Moussa: 2+ shots | 10% |
| Anis Hadj Moussa: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Anis Hadj Moussa: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Breel Embolo: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Dan Ndoye: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Johan Manzambi: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Johan Manzambi: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Johan Manzambi: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Riyad Mahrez: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Ruben Vargas: 2+ shots | 10% |
| Ruben Vargas: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Ruben Vargas: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Ruben Vargas: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Dan Ndoye: 2+ assists | 10% |
| Fares Chaïbi: 2+ assists | 10% |
| Ibrahim Maza: 2+ assists | 10% |
| Riyad Mahrez: 2+ assists | 10% |
| Breel Embolo: 3+ shots on target | 10% |
| Breel Embolo: 4+ shots on target | 10% |
| Dan Ndoye: 3+ shots on target | 10% |
| Johan Manzambi: 3+ shots on target | 10% |
| Ruben Vargas: 2+ shots on target | 10% |
| Ruben Vargas: 3+ shots on target | 10% |
| Amine Gouiri: 1+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Amine Gouiri: 2+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Amine Gouiri: 3+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Amine Gouiri: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Breel Embolo: 3+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Breel Embolo: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Dan Ndoye: 3+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Dan Ndoye: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Fares Chaïbi: 1+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Fares Chaïbi: 2+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Fares Chaïbi: 3+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Fares Chaïbi: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Ibrahim Maza: 1+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Ibrahim Maza: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Johan Manzambi: 3+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Johan Manzambi: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Riyad Mahrez: 2+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Riyad Mahrez: 3+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Riyad Mahrez: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Ruben Vargas: 2+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Ruben Vargas: 3+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Ruben Vargas: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Anis Hadj Moussa: 2+ shots on target | 10% |
| Anis Hadj Moussa: 3+ shots on target | 10% |
| Nadhir Benbouali: 1+ shots | 9% |
| Amine Gouiri: 3+ goals | 8% |
| Fares Chaïbi: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Ruben Vargas: 1+ assists | 3% |
| Breel Embolo: 1+ assists | 2% |
| Breel Embolo: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Dan Ndoye: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Zeki Amdouni: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ibrahim Maza: 1+ assists | 1% |
| Amine Gouiri: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Amine Gouiri: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Breel Embolo: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Christian Fassnacht: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Dan Ndoye: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Fares Chaïbi: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Ibrahim Maza: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Ibrahim Maza: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Johan Manzambi: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Johan Manzambi: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Johan Manzambi: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Nadhir Benbouali: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Riyad Mahrez: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Riyad Mahrez: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Riyad Mahrez: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Ruben Vargas: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Ruben Vargas: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Ruben Vargas: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Zeki Amdouni: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Riyad Mahrez: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Ruben Vargas: 2+ assists | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, switzerland vs. algeria - player props stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Switzerland and Algeria, scheduled for July 2 at 11:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This page compares Switzerland vs. Algeria - Player Props specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Robinhood Prediction Markets has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
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