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LoL: T1 vs DN SOOPers (BO5) - KeSPA Cup Playoffs

Cross-platform snapshot for "LoL: T1 vs DN SOOPers (BO5) - KeSPA Cup Playoffs": deepest order book, lowest fee, geo-coverage at a glance.

O/U 3.5 Games 69% Any Player Quadra Kill 52% Any Player Penta Kill 51% Any Player Penta Kill 51% Volume: $85K Liquidity: $95K Closes: 17 Aug 2026
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LoL: T1 vs DN SOOPers (BO5) - KeSPA Cup Playoffs

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
69% 31% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Go to the live market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
69% 31% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Go to the live market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Go to the live market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Go to the live market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Go to the live market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
O/U 3.5 Games69%
Any Player Quadra Kill52%
Any Player Penta Kill51%
Any Player Penta Kill51%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor51%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor49%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor49%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon49%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors49%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor49%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors49%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor49%
Game Handicap: DNS (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5)47%
Game 4 Winner46%
Game 2 Winner45%
Game 3 Winner45%
Game Handicap: DNS (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5)45%
Game 1 Winner42%
Match Winner38%
O/U 4.5 Games34%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs DN SOOPers (+1.5)25%
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs DN SOOPers (+2.5)12%

Market context

Based on real-money crowd forecasting, lol: t1 vs dn soopers (bo5) - kespa cup playoffs stands at 69% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the LoL Semifinal match between T1 and DN SOOPers in the KeSPA Cup Playoffs, initially scheduled for August 17, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET. This market will resolve …

Methodology

This page compares LoL: T1 vs DN SOOPers (BO5) - KeSPA Cup Playoffs specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
What about Smarkets as an alternative?
Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
Are all these platforms regulated?
No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
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