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MLB: Doubles Leader

Cross-platform snapshot for "MLB: Doubles Leader": deepest order book, lowest fee, geo-coverage at a glance.

James Wood 28% Josh Jung 26% Kevin McGonigle 19% Willy Adames 10% Volume: $1.1M Liquidity: $26K Closes: 11 Oct 2026
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MLB: Doubles Leader

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 28% 72% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Go to the live market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 28% 72% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Go to the live market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Go to the live market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Go to the live market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Go to the live market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
James Wood28%
Josh Jung26%
Kevin McGonigle19%
Willy Adames10%
Matt Olson10%
Bobby Witt Jr.8%
Freddie Freeman7%
Ernie Clement5%
Ezequiel Tovar4%
Mauricio Dubón3%
Taylor Ward2%
Nico Hoerner2%
Bo Bichette2%
Bryan Reynolds2%
Francisco Lindor2%
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.2%
Gavin Sheets1%
Casey Schmitt1%
Pete Alonso1%
Jarren Duran1%
Maikel Garcia1%
Pete Crow-Armstrong1%
Salvador Perez1%
Bryce Harper1%
Ian Happ1%
Juan Soto1%
George Springer1%
Corbin Carroll1%
Riley Greene1%
Colt Keith0%
Christian Walker0%
Adley Rutschman0%
Rhys Hoskins0%
Gabriel Moreno0%
Brent Rooker0%
CJ Abrams0%
Shohei Ohtani0%
Aaron Judge0%
Andy Pages0%
Nick Kurtz0%
Yordan Alvarez0%
Player B0%
Player C0%
Player D0%
Player E0%
Player F0%
Player G0%
Player H0%
Player I0%
Player J0%
Player K0%
Player L0%
Player M0%
Player N0%
Player O0%
Player P0%
Player Q0%
Player R0%
Player S0%
Player T0%
Player U0%
Player V0%
Player W0%
Player X0%
Player Y0%
Player Z0%
Player AA0%
Player AB0%
Player AC0%
Player AD0%
Player AE0%
Player AF0%
Player AG0%
Player AH0%
Player AI0%
Player AJ0%
Player AK0%
Player AL0%
Player AM0%
Player AN0%
Player AO0%
Player AP0%
Player AQ0%
Player AR0%
Player AS0%
Player AT0%
Player AU0%
Player AV0%
Player AW0%
Player AX0%
Other0%

Market context

The MLB: Doubles Leader prediction market currently prices this outcome at 28% YES. This market will resolve according to the player who hits the most doubles during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the offic…

Methodology

We read MLB: Doubles Leader from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
What about Smarkets as an alternative?
Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Robinhood Prediction Markets offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
Alex ChenAlex ChenPrediction Market AnalystandJordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction Reporter

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