Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Rome: Lina Gjorcheska vs Deborah Chiesa Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Rome: Lina Gjorcheska vs Deborah Chiesa Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Rome: Lina Gjorcheska vs Deborah Chiesa Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Rome: Lina Gjorcheska vs Deborah Chiesa Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Rome: Lina Gjorcheska vs Deborah Chiesa Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Rome: Lina Gjorcheska vs Deborah Chiesa Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| Rome: Lina Gjorcheska vs Deborah Chiesa Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Rome: Lina Gjorcheska vs Deborah Chiesa Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| Rome: Lina Gjorcheska vs Deborah Chiesa Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Rome: Lina Gjorcheska vs Deborah Chiesa | 0% |
| Rome: Lina Gjorcheska vs Deborah Chiesa Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| Rome: Lina Gjorcheska vs Deborah Chiesa Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Rome: Lina Gjorcheska vs Deborah Chiesa Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Rome: Lina Gjorcheska vs Deborah Chiesa Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Rome: Lina Gjorcheska vs Deborah Chiesa Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of rome: lina gjorcheska vs deborah chiesa. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the tennis match between Lina Gjorcheska and Deborah Chiesa in the Rome, originally scheduled for July 13, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'L…
Methodology
This page compares Rome: Lina Gjorcheska vs Deborah Chiesa specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Robinhood Prediction Markets offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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