Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Bastad: Lola Radivojevic vs Yulia Putintseva Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Bastad: Lola Radivojevic vs Yulia Putintseva Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Bastad: Lola Radivojevic vs Yulia Putintseva Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Bastad: Lola Radivojevic vs Yulia Putintseva Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Bastad: Lola Radivojevic vs Yulia Putintseva Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Bastad: Lola Radivojevic vs Yulia Putintseva Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Bastad: Lola Radivojevic vs Yulia Putintseva Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| Bastad: Lola Radivojevic vs Yulia Putintseva | 0% |
| Bastad: Lola Radivojevic vs Yulia Putintseva Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Bastad: Lola Radivojevic vs Yulia Putintseva Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Bastad: Lola Radivojevic vs Yulia Putintseva Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Bastad: Lola Radivojevic vs Yulia Putintseva Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| Bastad: Lola Radivojevic vs Yulia Putintseva Match O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| Bastad: Lola Radivojevic vs Yulia Putintseva Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Bastad: Lola Radivojevic vs Yulia Putintseva Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of bastad: lola radivojevic vs yulia putintseva. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the tennis match between Lola Radivojevic and Yulia Putintseva in the Bastad, originally scheduled for July 8, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to…
Methodology
This page compares Bastad: Lola Radivojevic vs Yulia Putintseva specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Robinhood Prediction Markets has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Robinhood Prediction Markets offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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