Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| ITF W50 Prague Women: Nastasja Schunk vs Gaeul Jang | 100% |
| ITF W50 Prague Women: Nastasja Schunk vs Gaeul Jang Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| ITF W50 Prague Women: Nastasja Schunk vs Gaeul Jang Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| ITF W50 Prague Women: Nastasja Schunk vs Gaeul Jang Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| ITF W50 Prague Women: Nastasja Schunk vs Gaeul Jang Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Completed Match | 90% |
| ITF W50 Prague Women: Nastasja Schunk vs Gaeul Jang Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 90% |
| ITF W50 Prague Women: Nastasja Schunk vs Gaeul Jang Match O/U 21.5 | 90% |
| ITF W50 Prague Women: Nastasja Schunk vs Gaeul Jang Match O/U 22.5 | 90% |
| ITF W50 Prague Women: Nastasja Schunk vs Gaeul Jang Match O/U 23.5 | 90% |
| ITF W50 Prague Women: Nastasja Schunk vs Gaeul Jang Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 10% |
| ITF W50 Prague Women: Nastasja Schunk vs Gaeul Jang Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 10% |
| ITF W50 Prague Women: Nastasja Schunk vs Gaeul Jang Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| ITF W50 Prague Women: Nastasja Schunk vs Gaeul Jang Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| ITF W50 Prague Women: Nastasja Schunk vs Gaeul Jang Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| ITF W50 Prague Women: Nastasja Schunk vs Gaeul Jang Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for ITF W50 Prague Women: Nastasja Schunk vs Gaeul Jang. This market refers to the tennis match between Nastasja Schunk and Gaeul Jang in the ITF W50 Prague Women, originally scheduled for August 18, 2026 at 3:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Nastasja…
Methodology
We read ITF W50 Prague Women: Nastasja Schunk vs Gaeul Jang from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Robinhood Prediction Markets has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
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