Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 2 Winner | 100% |
| Game 3 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 Games | 100% |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2? | 100% |
| First Blood in Game 3? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 4? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4? | 100% |
| First Blood in Game 5? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 5? | 100% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 100% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 100% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 100% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 100% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 100% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 4? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 21.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 18.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 36.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 39.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 36.5 in Game 2? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 39.5 in Game 2? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 42.5 in Game 2? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 36.5 in Game 4? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 39.5 in Game 4? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 5? | 99% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 90% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Match Winner | 35% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 10% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 10% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 10% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 10% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 10% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 10% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 4? | 10% |
| Game 1 Winner | 0% |
| Game 4 Winner | 0% |
| Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Hanwha Life Esports (+1.5) | 0% |
| Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Hanwha Life Esports (+2.5) | 0% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 0% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3? | 0% |
| First Blood in Game 4? | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 0% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 0% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 0% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 0% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 0% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 0% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3? | 0% |
| Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs Bilibili Gaming (+1.5) | 0% |
| Game Handicap: HLE (-2.5) vs Bilibili Gaming (+2.5) | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 42.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 2? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 51.5 in Game 2? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 36.5 in Game 3? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 42.5 in Game 3? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 42.5 in Game 4? | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs. This market refers to the LoL Grand final match between Bilibili Gaming and Hanwha Life Esports in the Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 12 at 4:00AM ET. This market will…
Methodology
We read LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Robinhood Prediction Markets has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Robinhood Prediction Markets offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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