Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
94% | 6% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
94% | 6% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 204.5 | 94% |
| O/U 206.5 | 93% |
| O/U 208.5 | 92% |
| O/U 210.5 | 89% |
| O/U 212.5 | 87% |
| O/U 214.5 | 83% |
| O/U 216.5 | 79% |
| O/U 218.5 | 76% |
| O/U 220.5 | 72% |
| O/U 222.5 | 70% |
| O/U 224.5 | 66% |
| O/U 226.5 | 61% |
| Heat vs. Hornets | 57% |
| Spread -1.5 | 56% |
| O/U 228.5 | 55% |
| Spread -2.5 | 54% |
| 1H O/U 119.5 | 52% |
| Team to Score First | 51% |
| 1H Moneyline | 51% |
| Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| O/U 230.5 | 50% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Bam Adebayo: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Bam Adebayo: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Bam Adebayo: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Brandon Miller: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Brandon Miller: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Brandon Miller: Points O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Brandon Miller: Points O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Brandon Miller: Points O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Brandon Miller: Points O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Brandon Miller: Points O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| Brandon Miller: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Brandon Miller: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Brandon Miller: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Brandon Miller: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Brandon Miller: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Brandon Miller: Assists O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Brandon Miller: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Brandon Miller: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Brandon Miller: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Brandon Miller: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Brandon Miller: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Brandon Miller: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Brandon Miller: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Brandon Miller: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Spread -3.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 49% |
| Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 9.5 | 49% |
| Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 48% |
| Bam Adebayo: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| Bam Adebayo: Assists O/U 1.5 | 47% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 46% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 46% |
| O/U 232.5 | 45% |
| Spread -4.5 | 45% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 19.5 | 45% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Assists O/U 3.5 | 45% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Assists O/U 9.5 | 44% |
| Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 43% |
| Spread -5.5 | 42% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 42% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 17.5 | 42% |
| Bam Adebayo: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 42% |
| O/U 234.5 | 41% |
| Spread -1.5 | 39% |
| Spread -6.5 | 39% |
| O/U 236.5 | 39% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 44.5 | 37% |
| Spread -2.5 | 36% |
| Spread -7.5 | 36% |
| Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 14.5 | 36% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 39.5 | 36% |
| O/U 238.5 | 35% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 24.5 | 35% |
| Spread -8.5 | 34% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 10.5 | 32% |
| Spread -9.5 | 31% |
| Spread -4.5 | 30% |
| O/U 240.5 | 30% |
| Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 16.5 | 29% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Assists O/U 5.5 | 29% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 28.5 | 28% |
| Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 27% |
| Bam Adebayo: Assists O/U 3.5 | 27% |
| Brandon Miller: Points O/U 22.5 | 27% |
| Spread -6.5 | 26% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 29.5 | 26% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 34.5 | 26% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 26% |
| Brandon Miller: Assists O/U 3.5 | 26% |
| Spread -11.5 | 25% |
| Brandon Miller: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 24% |
| Spread -13.5 | 22% |
| Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 19.5 | 22% |
| Spread -8.5 | 21% |
| Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 18% |
| Spread -10.5 | 17% |
| Spread -15.5 | 17% |
| O/U 250.5 | 16% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 16% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Assists O/U 7.5 | 16% |
| O/U 252.5 | 14% |
| Bam Adebayo: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 14% |
| Spread -12.5 | 13% |
| Spread -17.5 | 13% |
| Bam Adebayo: Assists O/U 5.5 | 13% |
| Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 24.5 | 12% |
| O/U 254.5 | 11% |
| Spread -14.5 | 10% |
| Spread -19.5 | 10% |
| Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 10% |
| Spread -21.5 | 8% |
| O/U 256.5 | 8% |
| Bam Adebayo: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 8% |
| Spread -16.5 | 7% |
| O/U 258.5 | 7% |
| O/U 260.5 | 7% |
| Bam Adebayo: Assists O/U 7.5 | 7% |
| Spread -18.5 | 6% |
| Spread -23.5 | 6% |
| Spread -20.5 | 5% |
| Spread -22.5 | 5% |
| Spread -27.5 | 5% |
| Spread -25.5 | 5% |
| Spread -29.5 | 3% |
| Spread -31.5 | 3% |
| Spread -24.5 | 2% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, heat vs. hornets stands at 94% likelihood according to current market consensus. In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 24 at 6:00PM ET: If the Heat win, the market will resolve to "Heat". If the Hornets win, the market will resolve to "Hornets". If th…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $101K.
Methodology
This page compares Heat vs. Hornets specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Robinhood Prediction Markets has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
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