Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
91% | 9% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
91% | 9% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Jordan Mason: Rushing Yards O/U 9.5 | 91% |
| Josh Allen: Rushing Yards O/U 9.5 | 88% |
| DJ Moore: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 88% |
| Khalil Shakir: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 88% |
| Aaron Jones Sr.: Rushing Yards O/U 9.5 | 87% |
| Jordan Addison: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 86% |
| James Cook III: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 85% |
| Dalton Kincaid: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 85% |
| T.J. Hockenson: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 85% |
| Jordan Mason: Rushing Yards O/U 19.5 | 84% |
| Aaron Jones Sr.: Receptions O/U 0.5 | 84% |
| Khalil Shakir: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 83% |
| Jordan Addison: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 81% |
| Carson Wentz: Passing Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 76% |
| Dalton Kincaid: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 75% |
| T.J. Hockenson: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 75% |
| Justin Jefferson: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 74% |
| T.J. Hockenson: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 74% |
| Aaron Jones Sr.: Rushing Yards O/U 19.5 | 73% |
| Jordan Mason: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 71% |
| Josh Allen: Passing Yards O/U 199.5 | 67% |
| Justin Jefferson: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 66% |
| Jordan Addison: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 62% |
| Khalil Shakir: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 62% |
| James Cook III: Rushing Yards O/U 69.5 | 61% |
| Jordan Mason: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 61% |
| T.J. Hockenson: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 61% |
| Keon Coleman: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 61% |
| T.J. Hockenson: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 59% |
| Aaron Jones Sr.: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 59% |
| Justin Jefferson: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 57% |
| Josh Allen: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 56% |
| Carson Wentz: Passing Yards O/U 199.5 | 56% |
| Khalil Shakir: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 55% |
| Josh Allen: Anytime Touchdown | 54% |
| Jordan Addison: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 52% |
| Josh Allen: Passing Yards O/U 224.5 | 51% |
| Aaron Jones Sr.: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 51% |
| T.J. Hockenson: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 51% |
| Josh Allen: Passing Yards O/U 124.5 | 50% |
| DJ Moore: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Addison: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| DJ Moore: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| James Cook III: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Dalton Kincaid: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| DJ Moore: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| T.J. Hockenson: Longest Reception O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Aaron Jones Sr.: Team First TD (Minnesota Vikings) | 50% |
| Dalton Kincaid: Team First TD (Buffalo Bills) | 50% |
| DJ Moore: Team First TD (Buffalo Bills) | 50% |
| James Cook III: Team First TD (Buffalo Bills) | 50% |
| Jordan Addison: Team First TD (Minnesota Vikings) | 50% |
| Jordan Mason: Team First TD (Minnesota Vikings) | 50% |
| Josh Allen: Team First TD (Buffalo Bills) | 50% |
| Justin Jefferson: Team First TD (Minnesota Vikings) | 50% |
| Keon Coleman: Team First TD (Buffalo Bills) | 50% |
| Khalil Shakir: Team First TD (Buffalo Bills) | 50% |
| T.J. Hockenson: Team First TD (Minnesota Vikings) | 50% |
| Khalil Shakir: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Dawson Knox: Team First TD (Buffalo Bills) | 50% |
| Carson Wentz: Passing Yards O/U 99.5 | 50% |
| Carson Wentz: Passing Yards O/U 124.5 | 50% |
| Tai Felton: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Ben Yurosek: Team First TD (Minnesota Vikings) | 50% |
| Gavin Bartholomew: Team First TD (Minnesota Vikings) | 50% |
| Jackson Hawes: Team First TD (Buffalo Bills) | 50% |
| Myles Price: Team First TD (Minnesota Vikings) | 50% |
| Ray Davis: Team First TD (Buffalo Bills) | 50% |
| Tai Felton: Team First TD (Minnesota Vikings) | 50% |
| Ty Johnson: Team First TD (Buffalo Bills) | 50% |
| DeeJay Dallas: Team First TD (Minnesota Vikings) | 50% |
| Greg Dortch: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Keleki Latu: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Odell Beckham Jr.: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Trent Sherfield: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Carson Wentz: Team First TD (Minnesota Vikings) | 50% |
| Greg Dortch: Team First TD (Buffalo Bills) | 50% |
| Keleki Latu: Team First TD (Buffalo Bills) | 50% |
| Odell Beckham Jr.: Team First TD (Minnesota Vikings) | 50% |
| Trent Sherfield: Team First TD (Buffalo Bills) | 50% |
| Justin Jefferson: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 49% |
| Aaron Jones Sr.: 2+ Touchdowns | 49% |
| Dalton Kincaid: 2+ Touchdowns | 49% |
| T.J. Hockenson: 2+ Touchdowns | 49% |
| Carson Wentz: Passing Attempts O/U 23.5 | 49% |
| Carson Wentz: Passing Completions O/U 13.5 | 48% |
| Dalton Kincaid: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 47% |
| Justin Jefferson: Receptions O/U 6.5 | 47% |
| Keon Coleman: Receptions O/U 0.5 | 47% |
| Josh Allen: Passing Completions O/U 17.5 | 47% |
| Carson Wentz: Passing Touchdowns O/U 1.5 | 47% |
| Josh Allen: Passing Yards O/U 149.5 | 46% |
| Justin Jefferson: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 46% |
| Khalil Shakir: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 46% |
| Carson Wentz: Passing Completions O/U 15.5 | 46% |
| Tai Felton: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 45% |
| Jordan Mason: Rushing Yards O/U 49.5 | 44% |
| DJ Moore: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 44% |
| Justin Jefferson: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 44% |
| T.J. Hockenson: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 44% |
| Carson Wentz: Passing Yards O/U 224.5 | 44% |
| James Cook III: Rushing Yards O/U 49.5 | 43% |
| James Cook III: Rushing Yards O/U 89.5 | 43% |
| DJ Moore: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 43% |
| Justin Jefferson: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 43% |
| Dalton Kincaid: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 43% |
| Carson Wentz: Passing Yards O/U 149.5 | 43% |
| Josh Allen: Passing Yards O/U 174.5 | 42% |
| Josh Allen: Passing Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 41% |
| James Cook III: Rushing Yards O/U 59.5 | 41% |
| Khalil Shakir: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 41% |
| Josh Allen: Passing Touchdowns O/U 1.5 | 40% |
| Jordan Addison: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 40% |
| Justin Jefferson: Anytime Touchdown | 40% |
| Keon Coleman: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 39% |
| Justin Jefferson: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 39% |
| Khalil Shakir: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 39% |
| Dawson Knox: Receptions O/U 0.5 | 39% |
| Carson Wentz: Passing Completions O/U 17.5 | 39% |
| Jordan Addison: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 38% |
| Carson Wentz: Passing Yards O/U 174.5 | 38% |
| Carson Wentz: Passing Attempts O/U 27.5 | 38% |
| Josh Allen: Rushing Yards O/U 19.5 | 37% |
| DJ Moore: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 37% |
| Khalil Shakir: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 37% |
| Dawson Knox: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 37% |
| Tai Felton: Receptions O/U 0.5 | 37% |
| James Cook III: Rushing Yards O/U 99.5 | 36% |
| T.J. Hockenson: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 36% |
| DJ Moore: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 36% |
| Jordan Addison: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 36% |
| Keon Coleman: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 36% |
| Dalton Kincaid: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 35% |
| Josh Allen: Passing Attempts O/U 27.5 | 35% |
| Aaron Jones Sr.: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 34% |
| Jordan Mason: Rushing Yards O/U 59.5 | 34% |
| Aaron Jones Sr.: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 34% |
| Dalton Kincaid: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 33% |
| Justin Jefferson: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 32% |
| Jordan Mason: Anytime Touchdown | 32% |
| Josh Allen: Passing Attempts O/U 31.5 | 32% |
| DJ Moore: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 31% |
| DJ Moore: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 31% |
| Carson Wentz: Passing Yards O/U 249.5 | 31% |
| James Cook III: Rushing Yards O/U 109.5 | 30% |
| Jordan Addison: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 30% |
| Keon Coleman: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 30% |
| T.J. Hockenson: Anytime Touchdown | 30% |
| James Cook III: Rushing Yards O/U 79.5 | 29% |
| Justin Jefferson: Longest Reception O/U 24.5 | 28% |
| Josh Allen: Passing Completions O/U 19.5 | 28% |
| Josh Allen: Passing Completions O/U 21.5 | 28% |
| Jordan Addison: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 28% |
| Jordan Addison: Anytime Touchdown | 27% |
| DJ Moore: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 26% |
| DJ Moore: Anytime Touchdown | 26% |
| Keon Coleman: 2+ Touchdowns | 26% |
| Dawson Knox: 2+ Touchdowns | 26% |
| Carson Wentz: Passing Attempts O/U 31.5 | 26% |
| Keon Coleman: Receiving Yards O/U 24.5 | 26% |
| Josh Allen: Passing Yards O/U 274.5 | 25% |
| Dalton Kincaid: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 25% |
| T.J. Hockenson: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 25% |
| Aaron Jones Sr.: Anytime Touchdown | 24% |
| Dalton Kincaid: Anytime Touchdown | 24% |
| Aaron Jones Sr.: Rushing Yards O/U 49.5 | 23% |
| Keon Coleman: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 23% |
| Justin Jefferson: Receiving Yards O/U 89.5 | 22% |
| Josh Allen: Passing Yards O/U 249.5 | 21% |
| Khalil Shakir: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 21% |
| Josh Allen: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 20% |
| Dalton Kincaid: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 20% |
| Justin Jefferson: Receiving Yards O/U 99.5 | 19% |
| Justin Jefferson: Receptions O/U 7.5 | 19% |
| Aaron Jones Sr.: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 19% |
| Keon Coleman: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 18% |
| DJ Moore: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 18% |
| DJ Moore: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 17% |
| Khalil Shakir: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 17% |
| Jordan Addison: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 17% |
| Dalton Kincaid: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 16% |
| T.J. Hockenson: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 16% |
| Josh Allen: 2+ Touchdowns | 16% |
| Keon Coleman: Anytime Touchdown | 16% |
| Dawson Knox: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 16% |
| Aaron Jones Sr.: Rushing Yards O/U 59.5 | 14% |
| James Cook III: Rushing Yards O/U 119.5 | 14% |
| Jordan Mason: Rushing Yards O/U 69.5 | 14% |
| Josh Allen: Rushing Yards O/U 49.5 | 14% |
| Dalton Kincaid: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 14% |
| Justin Jefferson: Receiving Yards O/U 109.5 | 14% |
| James Cook III: 2+ Touchdowns | 14% |
| Khalil Shakir: Anytime Touchdown | 14% |
| Josh Allen: Passing Attempts O/U 35.5 | 14% |
| Tai Felton: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 14% |
| DJ Moore: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 13% |
| Jordan Addison: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 13% |
| Keon Coleman: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 13% |
| Justin Jefferson: Receptions O/U 8.5 | 13% |
| Khalil Shakir: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 13% |
| Jordan Mason: 2+ Touchdowns | 13% |
| Carson Wentz: Passing Yards O/U 274.5 | 13% |
| Carson Wentz: Passing Touchdowns O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| Khalil Shakir: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 12% |
| DJ Moore: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 12% |
| Jordan Addison: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 12% |
| Keon Coleman: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 12% |
| Jordan Addison: 2+ Touchdowns | 12% |
| Dawson Knox: Anytime Touchdown | 12% |
| Jordan Mason: Rushing Yards O/U 79.5 | 11% |
| Dalton Kincaid: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 11% |
| T.J. Hockenson: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 11% |
| Dalton Kincaid: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 11% |
| T.J. Hockenson: Receptions O/U 6.5 | 11% |
| Khalil Shakir: 2+ Touchdowns | 11% |
| Josh Allen: Passing Yards O/U 299.5 | 10% |
| Josh Allen: Rushing Yards O/U 59.5 | 10% |
| DJ Moore: Receiving Yards O/U 89.5 | 10% |
| Jordan Addison: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 10% |
| Josh Allen: Passing Touchdowns O/U 2.5 | 9% |
| Keon Coleman: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 9% |
| Khalil Shakir: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 9% |
| Justin Jefferson: Receptions O/U 9.5 | 9% |
| Dawson Knox: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 9% |
| Carson Wentz: Passing Yards O/U 299.5 | 9% |
| Ben Yurosek: Anytime Touchdown | 9% |
| Dalton Kincaid: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 8% |
| T.J. Hockenson: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 8% |
| Justin Jefferson: 2+ Touchdowns | 8% |
| Tai Felton: Anytime Touchdown | 8% |
| Ty Johnson: Anytime Touchdown | 8% |
| Josh Allen: Passing Yards O/U 324.5 | 7% |
| Jordan Mason: Rushing Yards O/U 89.5 | 7% |
| Keon Coleman: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 7% |
| Keon Coleman: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 7% |
| DeeJay Dallas: Anytime Touchdown | 7% |
| Jordan Addison: Receiving Yards O/U 89.5 | 7% |
| Aaron Jones Sr.: Rushing Yards O/U 69.5 | 6% |
| Josh Allen: Rushing Yards O/U 69.5 | 6% |
| Carson Wentz: Passing Touchdowns O/U 3.5 | 6% |
| Myles Price: Anytime Touchdown | 6% |
| Ray Davis: Anytime Touchdown | 6% |
| Jackson Hawes: Anytime Touchdown | 5% |
| Carson Wentz: Anytime Touchdown | 5% |
| Josh Allen: Rushing Yards O/U 79.5 | 4% |
| Josh Allen: Passing Touchdowns O/U 3.5 | 3% |
| Gavin Bartholomew: Anytime Touchdown | 3% |
| Tai Felton: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 3% |
| Ty Johnson: 2+ Touchdowns | 2% |
| Myles Price: 2+ Touchdowns | 2% |
| Ben Yurosek: 2+ Touchdowns | 2% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 91% probability to bills vs. vikings - player props. Player prop markets for the NFL game between the Bills and Vikings, scheduled for November 9 at 8:15 PM ET.
Methodology
This page compares Bills vs. Vikings - Player Props specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Robinhood Prediction Markets has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
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