Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
93% | 7% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
93% | 7% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 24.5 | 93% |
| O/U 26.5 | 92% |
| O/U 28.5 | 91% |
| Chiefs O/U 10.5 | 91% |
| Broncos O/U 10.5 | 87% |
| O/U 30.5 | 85% |
| O/U 32.5 | 82% |
| Broncos O/U 12.5 | 82% |
| Broncos O/U 13.5 | 82% |
| Chiefs O/U 12.5 | 82% |
| Chiefs O/U 13.5 | 82% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 81% |
| 2H O/U 14.5 | 80% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 79% |
| Broncos O/U 14.5 | 77% |
| Chiefs O/U 16.5 | 76% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 76% |
| O/U 34.5 | 75% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 75% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 6.5 | 74% |
| Broncos O/U 16.5 | 72% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 6.5 | 71% |
| O/U 36.5 | 70% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 70% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 70% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 69% |
| Chiefs O/U 17.5 | 69% |
| 2H O/U 17.5 | 65% |
| Chiefs O/U 19.5 | 65% |
| O/U 38.5 | 64% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 64% |
| Broncos O/U 17.5 | 63% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 63% |
| O/U 39.5 | 62% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 61% |
| Broncos O/U 19.5 | 60% |
| O/U 40.5 | 59% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 59% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 57% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 56% |
| 3Q O/U 4.5 | 56% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 7.5 | 56% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 56% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 56% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 56% |
| Chiefs O/U 20.5 | 56% |
| O/U 41.5 | 55% |
| 1Q O/U 1.5 | 55% |
| 1Q O/U 4.5 | 55% |
| 3Q O/U 1.5 | 55% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 9.5 | 55% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 55% |
| Spread -0.5 | 54% |
| 2H O/U 20.5 | 54% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 54% |
| 4Q O/U 4.5 | 54% |
| O/U 42.5 | 53% |
| 4Q O/U 8.5 | 53% |
| 4Q O/U 11.5 | 53% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 53% |
| Broncos O/U 20.5 | 53% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 53% |
| Spread -1.5 | 52% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 11.5 | 52% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 10.5 | 52% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 12.5 | 52% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 51% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 8.5 | 51% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 9.5 | 51% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 11.5 | 51% |
| Exact Margin: Chiefs by 14-20 | 51% |
| Broncos Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -8.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -8.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -8.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -8.5 | 51% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 6.5 | 51% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 17.5 | 51% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 20.5 | 51% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 11.5 | 51% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 11.5 | 51% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 14.5 | 51% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Safety? | 50% |
| Chiefs Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Broncos vs. Chiefs: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| Exact Margin: Chiefs by 7-13 | 49% |
| Exact Margin: Chiefs by 21+ | 49% |
| O/U 43.5 | 48% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 48% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 8.5 | 48% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 17.5 | 48% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 14.5 | 48% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 47% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 47% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 47% |
| 1H Moneyline | 47% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 47% |
| Broncos vs. Chiefs | 46% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 46% |
| Broncos O/U 22.5 | 46% |
| O/U 44.5 | 45% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 45% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 45% |
| Chiefs Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 45% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 45% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 44% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 44% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 10.5 | 44% |
| Spread -1.5 | 44% |
| Chiefs O/U 23.5 | 44% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 43% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 43% |
| O/U 45.5 | 42% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 42% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| 2H O/U 23.5 | 41% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 41% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 41% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 12.5 | 41% |
| Broncos Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 41% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 41% |
| Spread -3.5 | 40% |
| O/U 46.5 | 40% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 40% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 40% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 40% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 40% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 40% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 40% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 40% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 40% |
| Broncos O/U 23.5 | 39% |
| Spread -4.5 | 38% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 38% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 37% |
| Chiefs O/U 25.5 | 37% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 37% |
| O/U 47.5 | 36% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 36% |
| 2H O/U 26.5 | 36% |
| Spread -5.5 | 36% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 36% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 35% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 35% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 35% |
| Spread -6.5 | 34% |
| O/U 48.5 | 34% |
| Spread -3.5 | 34% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 34% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 33% |
| Chiefs O/U 26.5 | 33% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 13.5 | 33% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 32% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 32% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 32% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| Spread -4.5 | 31% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 31% |
| Broncos O/U 25.5 | 31% |
| O/U 50.5 | 30% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 30% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 30% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 30% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 30% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 30% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 13.5 | 30% |
| Spread -5.5 | 29% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| Broncos O/U 26.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 28% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 27% |
| Spread -6.5 | 27% |
| Spread -7.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 26% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 26% |
| Chiefs O/U 27.5 | 26% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 26% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 25% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 25% |
| Spread -8.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 25% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 25% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 25% |
| Spread -9.5 | 24% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 24% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| O/U 52.5 | 23% |
| Chiefs O/U 28.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 23% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 23% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 22% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 22% |
| Broncos O/U 27.5 | 22% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 17.5 | 22% |
| Chiefs O/U 29.5 | 22% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 21% |
| Exact Margin: Chiefs by 1-6 | 21% |
| Spread -7.5 | 21% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 16.5 | 21% |
| O/U 54.5 | 20% |
| Spread -8.5 | 20% |
| Spread -10.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 20% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 20% |
| Chiefs O/U 30.5 | 20% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 1-6 | 19% |
| Spread -9.5 | 19% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 19% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 19% |
| Broncos O/U 30.5 | 19% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 18% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 18% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 18% |
| Chiefs O/U 34.5 | 18% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 17% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 17% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 17% |
| Broncos O/U 34.5 | 17% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 16.5 | 17% |
| Spread -13.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 16% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 16% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| Spread -10.5 | 15% |
| O/U 56.5 | 14% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 7-12 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| O/U 58.5 | 13% |
| 4Q O/U 17.5 | 13% |
| Spread -13.5 | 13% |
| Spread -14.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 13% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 12% |
| O/U 60.5 | 11% |
| Spread -16.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 11% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 11% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 19.5 | 11% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 25+ | 10% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 10% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 10% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 10% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 20.5 | 10% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 13-18 | 9% |
| Spread -14.5 | 9% |
| Spread -17.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 9% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 9% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 19.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 8% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 8% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 20.5 | 8% |
| Spread -16.5 | 7% |
| Spread -19.5 | 7% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| O/U 62.5 | 6% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 19-24 | 6% |
| Spread -17.5 | 6% |
| Spread -20.5 | 6% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| O/U 64.5 | 6% |
| Spread -19.5 | 5% |
| Spread -21.5 | 5% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| Spread -20.5 | 4% |
| Spread -21.5 | 4% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 3% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 2% |
Market context
Broncos vs. Chiefs. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 46% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-09-15T00:15:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
Sports outcome markets resolve from official league data once the contest finishes. Pricing typically tightens through the warm-up window as line-ups, weather, and starting-pitcher data become public, then moves on goals or runs in real time.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $1.4M.
Methodology
We read Broncos vs. Chiefs from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Robinhood Prediction Markets has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Robinhood Prediction Markets offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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