Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
93% | 7% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
93% | 7% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Colorado Avalanche | 93% |
| Dallas Stars | 90% |
| Edmonton Oilers | 88% |
| Carolina Hurricanes | 86% |
| Vegas Golden Knights | 85% |
| Florida Panthers | 82% |
| Minnesota Wild | 78% |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 77% |
| Washington Capitals | 70% |
| Utah Mammoth | 66% |
| Montreal Canadiens | 63% |
| Los Angeles Kings | 57% |
| San Jose Sharks | 56% |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | 55% |
| New Jersey Devils | 54% |
| Anaheim Ducks | 52% |
| Buffalo Sabres | 52% |
| Ottawa Senators | 47% |
| Philadelphia Flyers | 45% |
| Columbus Blue Jackets | 40% |
| St. Louis Blues | 36% |
| New York Rangers | 35% |
| Pittsburgh Penguins | 32% |
| Winnipeg Jets | 32% |
| Boston Bruins | 30% |
| Nashville Predators | 28% |
| New York Islanders | 27% |
| Detroit Red Wings | 25% |
| Seattle Kraken | 17% |
| Chicago Blackhawks | 14% |
| Calgary Flames | 13% |
| Vancouver Canucks | 7% |
Market context
Which teams will make the NHL Playoffs? — current market-implied probability: 93%. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team makes the 2026-27 NHL Playoffs. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A team will be considered to have made the Playoffs if it qualifies f…
Methodology
We read Which teams will make the NHL Playoffs? from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Robinhood Prediction Markets has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Robinhood Prediction Markets offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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