National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Arthur Fils

Platform comparison

Market context

Arthur Fils and Rafael Jodar are set for a rematch at the National Bank Open, with the market currently implying a 54% chance that Jodar advances. Their recent meetings are split across sources, but the most concrete match record in the search results shows Fils beating Jodar in Barcelona on clay in April 2026, while Jodar beat Fils in Washington on hard courts in July 2026, leaving the matchup close on head-to-head context and surface-specific signals.[1][3][9][15]

That sort of split helps explain why Polymarket’s crowd price near even money can diverge from Kalshi or Betfair, where the same contest is usually shown as decimal odds and then translated back to implied probability after fees and commission. In practice, Betfair and Smarkets users must also account for exchange commission, while Kalshi-style event contracts and Polymarket pricing reflect different fee, custody, and access rules; KYC coverage can vary by platform and jurisdiction, which affects who can participate and how quickly price dislocations are arbitraged. The key comparison on this market is whether the venue leans on raw probability, quoted odds, or net-of-fee value.[1][11][12]

For traders, the main catalysts are the official draw order, any last-minute scheduling changes, and whether both players are confirmed to start on the listed date, because a walkover, cancellation, or delay beyond the market’s settlement window would push the contract towards its special settlement rules rather than a normal head-to-head result. Recent match data also show that the hard-court matchup has been competitive enough to keep the price responsive to small updates in form, serve quality, and draw position, so late tournament announcements matter more than headline ranking gaps.[7][13][14]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Arthur Fils specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?

Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.

Which platform has the deepest liquidity?

Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.

Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?

Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.

Which platform is accessible globally?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Robinhood Prediction Markets has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.

Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?

Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Robinhood Prediction Markets offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.