Highest temperature in Busan on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Busan’s highest temperature on 10 August will be set by the reading at Gimhae Intl Airport Station in Weather Underground’s **Daily Observations** table, so the key question is whether the day peaks around the high 20s or pushes into the low 30s Celsius. Polymarket is currently showing a 0% YES probability for the broader market, but that should be read as a pricing snapshot, not a literal forecast; on Polymarket, shares are quoted as implied probabilities, while Betfair and Smarkets typically present decimal odds, which can make the same view look different once commission is added. Polymarket also settles against the specified station observation rather than a generic city forecast, which matters when coastal stations diverge from headline weather apps.[4][10]

The historical frame points to a warm, humid August, with Busan’s average high around 29–30°C and typical August highs in the mid-to-high 20s to around 30°C, though hotter days are common and local records for 10 August have reached the mid-30s Celsius in climate datasets.[5][7][11][18] Recent heat across South Korea is a relevant comparator: authorities and media reported record national temperatures and severe heatwave conditions in early August 2026, with nearby southern cities including Busan described as running in the high 30s Celsius.[12][15] Against that backdrop, a zero-priced outcome on a low 30s range can reflect either thin trading or a market anchored to a specific, narrower bucket rather than an expectation of an unusually cool day.[4][12]

Traders should watch the morning forecast evolution, the timing of sea-breeze and thunderstorm activity, and whether Busan’s afternoon heating is capped by cloud or rain, because the market resolves on the day’s maximum rather than a noon reading.[10][16] Time and Date’s forecast for Busan on 10 August points to thunderstorms early, overcast conditions, and an 83/77°F range, which would keep the highest temperature in the high 20s Celsius unless clearing arrives quickly.[10] On platform mechanics, Polymarket’s US-facing access is more constrained than Betfair’s or Smarkets’ broader exchange-style access in many jurisdictions, while fee treatment also differs: prediction-market spreads on Polymarket are embedded in prices, whereas Betfair and Smarkets usually charge commission on winnings, which affects how a trader evaluates the same weather view.[4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Busan on August 10? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?

Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.

What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?

Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.

Which platform has the deepest liquidity?

Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.

Which platform is accessible globally?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Robinhood Prediction Markets has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.

Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?

Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Robinhood Prediction Markets offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.